Has Rick Warren Got a Prayer? Frank Rich Nails It.

Here's the link to the full piece today in the NY Times, but the best quote is this:

"Fighting AIDS is not a get-out-of-homophobia-free card. "

This pretty much sums up my feeling that I would have been impressed 20 years ago had Warren been out there talking sensibly about AIDS. But now? In 2008? Working on AIDS is just sensible and mainstream and it does not deserve a Nobel Prize just for doing what should be expected of a renown faith leader in the US. C'mon people. Let's set our expectations where they belong.

What Does A Jew Share At Christmas?

This fabulous video comes courtesy of Bil Browning of The Bilerico Project. We keep hearing that straight folks need to see lesbian and gay couples living our lives in order to understand the need for equal rights. So here's a wonderful example of the first Christmas these two gay men are spending together. Enjoy!

A Bucket of Tarnish: Rachel on Obama & Warren

Rachel at her very best on the Rick Warren controversy with special guest, SF Mayor Gavin Newsom.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

New York Mayor Agrees: Caroline's Outstanding

The man who built a vast financial empire and who has put NYC back on track, agrees that New York and the US Senate need Caroline Kennedy.

Bloomberg: Caroline Kennedy "Can Do Anything"

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by The Huffington Post News Editors on 12/8/08

WASHINGTON — New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg gave a boost to Caroline Kennedy as a possible Senate candidate, saying she is experienced and "can do anything."

"Caroline Kennedy is a very experienced woman, she's worked very hard for the city. I can just tell you she's made an enormous difference in New York City," said Bloomberg after meeting on Capitol Hill with other U.S. mayors to seek stimulus spending from Congress.

Her cousin, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., said recently that she is interested in the Senate seat that would become open if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is confirmed as President-elect Barack Obama's next secretary of state.

If that happens, New York Gov. David Paterson would appoint someone to the seat for a two-year period, after which they would have to run for election, and then for a full term in 2012.

Kennedy has already spoken to Paterson about the Senate job.

While she is easily the most famous contender for Clinton's Senate seat, there are plenty of others. New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is widely known in the state. Paterson could also pick Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown or Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi.

There are also a number of House members in the running, including Reps. Carolyn Maloney, Kirsten Gillibrand, Steve Israel, Brian Higgins, Nydia Velazquez and Jerrold Nadler.

The governor has weeks to decide, and Bloomberg said he wasn't going to try to insert himself into the governor's selection process.

"Caroline is very competent. The governor has obviously a lot of good candidates to pick from and I won't be presumptuous enough to try to insert myself into what's obviously a very difficult situation for him," the mayor said.

"Caroline Kennedy can do anything," he added, calling her hardworking, honest and smart.

Kennedy has worked with the Bloomberg administration raising tens of millions of dollars a year in private money to help New York City's public schools.

On Sunday, New York's senior senator, Charles Schumer, said he liked all the candidates and would not take sides before the governor announces his decision. Clinton has yet to weigh in on who she would like to see get her seat.

Kennedy has strong connections to incoming Obama administration officials _ though Obama himself said he is not going to get involved in New York politics.

As a prominent booster of Obama's presidential bid, Kennedy spent much of 2008 taking bigger steps onto the public stage.

As famous as she is, she always has been viewed as almost painfully shy.

She met her husband, Edwin Schlossberg, while working at the Metropolitan Museum of Art. They married in 1986 and have three children.

She made a splash in early 2008 by writing an op-ed column for The New York Times declaring her support for Obama, saying he had the potential to be as inspirational to Americans as her father was in the 1960s. She also spoke at the Democratic National Convention.

She then hit the campaign trail with Obama, and worked on the vice-presidential search that eventually settled on Joe Biden.

 

 

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The US Senate Needs Caroline Kennedy

New York State has an incredible opportunity to replace Hillary Clinton with an outstanding, highly intelligent and effective new senator - Caroline Kennedy.  There's no one who could do more for both the state and the Senate.

Caroline Kennedy: "No Drama" Before "No Drama" Was Cool

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by Al Giordano on 12/8/08

The reports that Caroline Kennedy is interested in New York Governor David Paterson's appointment to replace Senator Hillary Clinton in the US Senate have created a fascinating set of reactions that in some cases have resonated inversely with the dynamics of the Democratic presidential primaries of 2008.

Let's tug at the threads of some debates regarding the possible Kennedy appointment to demonstrate that there is an ongoing battle over the heart, soul and future of the Democratic party that did not end or disappear with Obama's November 4 victory, and that is part of what is at play with the coming appointment in New York.

On a purely political level, if it is true that Attorney Kennedy would like to serve in her uncle Bobby's old senate seat, we can probably consider her appointment - whether one loves it or hates it - a lead-pipe cinch. For Governor Paterson - thrust into the job of Governor after Elliot Spitzer crashed and burned from personal and legal scandal - his first political priority is to get himself elected to continue as Governor in 2010. By appointing Kennedy, New York Democrats would get a junior US Senator that would coast to reelection without diverting significant resources from the governor's contest. And Paterson would curry goodwill from many New Yorkers, downstate, upstate and suburban, that would be thrilled with the choice of the Irish-American daughter of President John F. Kennedy.

The truth is, no matter who Paterson picks - be it Andrew Cuomo or any number of members of Congress - there will be grumbling from the camps of those that didn't get it, with many legitimate arguments about why one deserved it or would have been better than the other. (This is why the tea leaves suggest that over in Illinois, Governor Rod Blagojevich may appoint a "caretaker" in 73-year-old Emil Jones to fill Obama's Senate seat, so as not to raise the ire of various powerful pols and factions with their eyes on it, allowing them to fight it out in the 2010 primary and him to duck the blowback from the also-rans.) Paterson won't have that problem if he chooses Kennedy. She is in a league of her own. And, at least in public, all the other clans and factions in Empire State politics will have to recognize it and live with it.

On a policy level, it would be an even more brilliant move from the perspective of liberalism and progressivism: Attorney Kennedy is underestimated by some only because she's lived by the "no drama" approach to politics long before Obama made it popular. Most people have little idea of her accomplishments because her style has been to seek results not credit for them. I know, because in the 1990s, as political reporter for the Boston Phoenix, I covered the Kennedy family and all its doings - including Ted Kennedys 1994 reelection battle against Mitt Romney - very closely. Caroline, at the helm of the Kennedy library, has served as the true executive director of the family and all its political and policy interests. She has also been the family's ambassador nationwide and around the world: the one that attended funerals and other matters of statesmanship on the family's behalf. That she generally avoided the spotlight in doing so, and always avoided personal scandal - a particularly difficult challenge for anybody named Kennedy - is testimony to her skill and finesse at the political game.

The Kennedy policy machine is nothing to shake a stick at: Senator Ted Kennedy has, during 46 years in the Senate, installed a generation of policy wonks as lead staffers on almost all the key committees in the upper house of the Capitol dome, and no small number in the lower one. When Teddy nods his head subtly in a given policy direction that network marches as an army and has steamrolled over Republican and business interests time and time again. When progressive legislation has been passed - when reactionary legislation has been killed - on civil rights and liberties, health care, jobs and wages, education, and on other issues, the fingerprints of current and former Kennedy staffers have been on each and every one, even as Teddy shined the spotlight on other legislators who took the public lead. Joe Biden and John Kerry are among the Senate veterans that have benefited from Kennedy's generosity when it comes to sharing or assigning credit.

Paterson and New York, thus, would not just be getting a Senator. They would get, with Caroline, the driver with the keys to the most finely tuned and influential progressive national political network in American politics, reaching (in many cases invisibly) into levers of power in all branches of government and in many states far from Massachusetts, including among the networks planted by the Southern Civil Rights movement and among Hispanic-American political leaders and organizations from Texas to California for whom "Tio Ted" has been mentor and unflinching ally. (The Kennedys have long been central to the push for multi-racial movements in US politics, one that just became realized with Obama's election as never before: that will also serve Attorney Kennedy and so many of her constituents well in New York.)

Here's what I find so interesting about some of the early reactions: Some Clinton loyalists and others are not happy at all with this development. The arguments they deploy, in the Daily Kos comment threads and elsewhere, to disparage the possible appointment are identical in many cases to those they defended against during the presidential primaries (and even more so in 2000 during Clinton's first campaign for Senate): They say: Why should a member of a political dynasty get the job? She's never held elected office (some of us, on the other hand, see that as a plus, just as we saw Obama's lack of "beltway boiling and seasoning" as positive). Attorney Kennedy, some say, hasn't enough "experience."

And you can also feel the bile rise up their throats as they cut to the real thing they're upset about: That such an appointment would supposedly constitute a political payback for her (and the Kennedy family's) support for Obama, or a matter of "patronage" or nepotism, or "aristocracy," or that she represents, to some, the same politics of "celebrity" that some (wishfully) want to believe explains Obama's primary victories. (And, yes, it is very funny to listen to complaints from some of the same mouths about Attorney Kennedy not being "charismatic" enough. They're really scraping the barrel to come up with a legitimate reason for what is evidently more of an emotional revulsion.)

The possible Kennedy appointment also opens up some wounds from some (including some former Edwards enthusiasts) that see all things Obama through the lens of "Dear Leader-ism," one writer's never-ending suggestion that Obama's base is somehow made up of dupes more into cult of personality than policy (an attempted insult that is so obviously born of sour grapes that its not worthy of response other than perhaps by quoting Alex Haley: "History is written by the winners.")

I'm not saying that these superficial contradictions make for anything hypocritical: to the contrary, the critics of a possible appointment of Attorney Kennedy to the US Senate are essentially correct in perceiving that something much bigger than symbolism would occur through it. The Kennedy and Clinton tendencies in the Democratic Party have embodied two distinct magnetic poles each trying to pull the party in different directions for the past 16 years, and before that between Kennedy and Carter tendencies.

This was very much at play with Senator and Attorney Kennedy's endorsement of Obama early in the primaries, and intentionally signaled as such. The Kennedy organization was not happy - many of us were not - with the change in direction that the Clinton administration brought to the party, toward a blatant acquiescence to corporate interests, away from the New Deal and the Great Society. And while both families have had their share of public personal scandal, for the Kennedys that hasn't bled much at all into the political or policy realms: we just have never seen Ted Kennedy, for example, go to Malaysia and collect $200,000 for a speech from a corporate power broker, lavishing his benefactor's company with praise, as occurred on Friday with Bill Clinton, now getting a few last international paydays in before his ethics agreement with the Obama administration kicks in to prevent future such embarrassments.

The problem isn't really - on either side of the debate - one of "dynasty" per se but, rather, of which one. There are dramatic policy and ideological differences between the Kennedy organization's vision of the Democratic Party and the Clinton organization's. In the end, one side or another's pleasure or distaste is more for what a particular dynasty has done, than merely that it happens to be one. So it's natural that people that prefer the Clinton over the Kennedy formula for doing politics would object to an appointment to a member the latter organization whereas those more ideologically in harmony with the Kennedys (and particularly Ted Kennedy, giving his final months or years his all for the same causes for which he has lived) tend to be excited by the suggestion of Caroline as Senator.

An appointment of Caroline Kennedy to the US Senate from New York is qualitatively different than it would be, say, for Robert Kennedy Jr. or another member of the family: She, more than any other of her generation, brings the reins and detailed knowledge of the family organization for which she has been (I'll use a phrase that's provocative but not to be scoffed at once you've given it a minute's thought) the "community organizer" among the Kennedys, the administrator and attaché that has been most responsible, among them, for complying with the details once Ted Kennedy has exercised the broad stroke leadership.

Finally: Anybody who underestimates Attorney Caroline Kennedy, who wants to view her as somehow lightweight or just a celebrity name inside a business suit, does so at the risk to his and her sense of reality. Her skill sets are not merely adequate, but, rather exceptional and extraordinary. She was "no drama" before "no drama" was cool. And her appointment, if it comes, will be a gift that keeps on giving before and after Ted Kennedy moves on to the great battleground beyond.

Update: Here's another reason I'm fond of this idea. Attorney Kennedy, at 51, would be younger than 90 out of 100 US senators. That the upper house is stale and stodgy is an understatement.

More on Senate Races

 

 

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A Real Thanks - Giving

Some really good news. Of course, it'll be appealed, but it's nice to start out this way than the reverse.

Florida Ban on Gay Adoption Ruled Unconstitutional

via Towleroad by Andy on 11/25/08

The Miami Herald reports that Miami-Dade Circuit Judge Cindy Lederman has declared Florida's gay adoption ban unconstiutional:

"In a 53-page ruling, Judge Lederman said, 'It is clear that sexual orientation is not a predictor of a person's ability to parent.' Two lawyers from the Florida Attorney General's Office said they would file an appeal Tuesday. 'We respect the court's decision,' said Assistant Attorney General Valerie Martin. 'Based upon the wishes of our client, the Department of Children & Families, we will file an appeal.' Gill, who is raising the half-brothers, ages 4 and 8, said he was ''elated'' by the ruling and 'I cried tears of joy for the first time in my life.'"

Important update on NY marriage fight

Pressure Rises Against NY Sen. Ruben Diaz Over Marriage Equality

via Joe. My. God. by Joe on 11/18/08

The NY Daily News reports today that the Spanish-language newspaper El Diario/La Prensa has called out NY Sen. Ruben Diaz (D-Bronx) for blocking progress on marriage equality. El Diario:

"Rev. Diaz and others are supposedly not for denying rights to gays and lesbians but believe that marriage should be between a man and woman. Yet, it's this very discriminatory position that serves to exclude lesbian and gay couples from obtaining the rights, benefits and standing that heterosexuals take for granted.

"This use of religious beliefs to block basic civil rights undermines the separation of church and state in this nation. The basis of that separation lies in the experience of early American colonists who had fled religious persecution elsewhere to pursue tolerance, acceptance and freedom in the "new" world. Latinos, as well as other groups, should have an honest conversation about homophobia. Discrimination, whether within or outside of our communities, on the basis of color, immigration status, gender or sexuality is just not acceptable."

The News also takes notes the anti-Diaz campaign on Facebook.

Diaz is also the target of another kind of (probably unwelcome) attention from a new (and rather exhaustively-titled) Facebook page called "Stop a Marriage Referendum in New York: Malcolm Smith for Majority Leader." Officers of the group include a number of well-known LGBT activists like Ethan Geto, Stonewall Democrats Matthew Carlin, Corey Johnson, and the page's creator, Jeff Campagna, a producer and activist, who wrote:

"I am furious that the obstacle standing between us and marriage equality is a Democratic state senator named Ruben Diaz Sr., from the Bronx, who with his two friends Senators Carl Kruger and Pedro Espada Jr., also Democrats, is threatening to stand with the Republicans to block Malcolm Smith from becoming Senate Majority Leader in January. Why would Ruben Diaz Sr. do this? Because he says he refuses to back a Senate Majority Leader like Malcolm Smith, who supports marriage equality and who will finally put the issue to a vote. But Ruben Diaz Sr. isn't just threatening to block Malcolm Smith from being majority leader. He's so obsessed with gay marriage that he's trying to figure out how to bring Proposition 8 to the ballot in New York. Maybe Senator Diaz thinks that we're all going to let this pass and walk on eggshells as he plays power games with his Senate colleagues. We have before. Remember when we cheered the passage of a sexual orientation non-discrimination act that was stripped of protections for gender expression because we didn't want to rock the boat?"

Both on Facebook and at an anti-Prop 8 rally outside City Hall last week, Campagna urged gay marriage supporters to contact Diaz Sr. and urge him to support Smith. At the rally, he called on everyone present to pull out their cell phones and program in the senator's office number, which he yelled out from the podium.

Gov. David Paterson has met with Diaz to discuss his recalcitrance on marriage equality.

Join the Impact: Oakland, CA

Courtesy of a friend of a friend.

Join the Impact: Minneapolis

1500 in
Minneapolis

Join the Impact: DC

DC

Join the Impact: Iowa City

Iowa City

Join the Impact: Atlanta

Atlanta

Join the Impact: Philadelphia

Philadelphia

Join the Impact: Houston

600 in
Houston

Join the Impact: Anchorage, Alaska

I wonder if Sarah Palin can see gay people from her backyard?

Anchorage, Alaska

Join the Impact: Madison, Wisconsin

Madison, Wisconsin

Join the Impact: Boston

My home for over 25 years.
Boston

Join the Impact: Toronto

100+ in
Toronto

Join the Impact: Nashville

300 in
Nashville

Join the Impact: Salt Lake City

Visibility in the place where the Mormons live:

Salt Lake City

Join the Impact: Detroit

Hundreds Rally in Detroit

Waymon Hudson writing on Bilerico:

What do we want? EQUALITY! When do we want it? NOW!

That was the chant that rang out through downtown Detroit, Michigan today as over 300 hundred dedicated protesters rallied in the freezing rain and sleet as part of the National Day of Protest. That was also the chant coming from my husband and me, who are in town for family matters. It was hundreds of cold, wet Michiganders (and two very cold Floridians), marching in unity and solidarity with the hundreds of thousands across the country demanding equal rights and bringing visibility to our communities issues.

Join the Impact: Austin, TX

Austin

Paige Schilt writing on Bilerico:

An estimated 3,000 Austinites turned out to protest anti-gay ballot measures across the country today. A grassroots coalition of social networkers, gay bars, activists, journalists, and churches helped spread the word about the rally at City Hall, which featured speakers from Atticus Circle, Soulforce, and Equality Texas, as well as individual Texans sharing personal stories about the impact of discrimination.

The highpoint of the rally lineup was 10-year-old Mason Marriott-Voss, who told the crowd about the day his moms, Sue and Tanya, were married in California. Mason spoke eloquently about how Prop 8 hurts ordinary kids and families, and he reminded us of the diversity of families in America, where only 23% of families fit the so-called "traditional" model.

"According to my math teacher," Mason quipped, "that's a minority."

Join the Impact: NYC

Home, sweet home.
NYC

Join the Impact: Grand Forks, North Dakota

Amazing, huh?

Grand Forks, North Dakota

Here in Grand Forks, ND, about 75 protesters gathered in from of the City Hall and then marched to the Town Square. The turnout was thrilling, but more encouraging were the passersby. College-aged men in pickup trucks pumping fists and flashing peace signs. Women reaching over from passenger seats and honking their husbands' horns. Elderly folks smiling and waving. Not a single person yelled anything out of a car window. Come to think of it, I only saw one middle finger the whole day!

Join the Impact: Greenville, South Carolina

Today's posts consist of text and photos from many of the marches and rallies held across the country to protest the Prop 8 vote in California and to show support for marriage equality. Many of the photos come from Andrew Sullivan's blog, from Bilerico Project and elsewhere.

Greenville, South Carolina
With less than 24 hours notice that a rally was being held in Greenville, SC about 40 of us gathered in front of City Hall to let others know we support equal marriage for all persons. As this is the center of the Bible Belt, we were unsure of what reaction we would receive from passing motorists and pedestrians. What a pleasant surprise, the only fingers displayed to us were in the shape of a V. Horns honked, people shouted support and a few folks even joined us to lend their support. The crowd itself ranged from those in their 20's through to a couple in their late 50's. A huge surprise and confidence booster is the fact that 10-15 of those in attendance were heterosexual... they came to show their support.

Join the Impact: Seattle

Seattle

Joining Our Fight: Civil Rights Groups Support Prop 8 Lawsuit

Rainbow of civil rights groups petition CA court to halt enactment of Prop 8

via Pam's House Blend - Front Page by Pam Spaulding on 11/15/08

The idea that minority groups are monolithic about this issue needs to die a quick death now. This coalition of groups is taking action.

Civil rights groups today a petition with the California Supreme Court to stop the enactment of Proposition 8 because it would mandate discrimination against a minority group and did not follow the process required for fundamental revisions to the California Constitution.

In the petition, the Asian Pacific American Legal Center, Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund, Equal Justice Society, California NAACP and the NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund, Inc. argue that in order to protect the fundamental rights of all Californians, a higher standard is required to overturn the right to marry. Minority communities cannot be stripped of their fundamental rights by a simple majority vote.

"We would be making a grave mistake to view Proposition 8 as just affecting the LGBT community," said Eva Paterson, president of the Equal Justice Society. "If the Supreme Court allows Proposition 8 to take effect, it would represent a threat to the rights of people of color and all minorities."

More below the fold.

The California Constitution requires that any measure attempting to revise the underlying principles of the constitution must first be approved by a two-thirds vote of the legislature before being submitted to the voters. Proposition 8 was not approved through that constitutionally required process.

"Proposition 8 contradicts the most basic protection guaranteed by the California Constitution, which is the right to equal protection of the laws," said John Trasviña, President and General Counsel of the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund. "We can not allow the Constitution to sanction discrimination against one group of people."

"Direct democracy cannot override the California Constitution, which requires more than a majority vote to deprive a minority group of their fundamental rights," said John A. Payton, President and Director-Counsel of the NAACP Legal Defense Fund.

"We cannot become a society that picks and chooses who is entitled to equal rights," said Alice A. Huffman, president of the California State NAACP. "We should include all people from all walks of life in the entitlement to all freedoms now enjoyed by the majority of our population As a civil rights advocate, we will continue the fight of eliminating roadblocks to freedom."

"Consistent with core equal protection principles, minority communities must not be stripped of their fundamental rights by bare majority rule," said Karin Wang, Vice-President of Programs for the Asian Pacific American Legal Center. "California went down this path before when the majority population chose to bar interracial marriages involving an unpopular minority: Asian immigrants. The state Constitution exists exactly for this reason - to protect the fundamental rights of minority communities."

"Let's not forget the landmark 1967 case of Loving v. Virginia, which allowed two people of different races to marry," said Paterson of the Equal Justice Society. "People then believed it was acceptable to keep Mildred Loving from marrying a white man because of their ideas of who should marry whom. We must not return to those times."

The court has precedent for invalidating an improper voter initiative. In 1990, the court overruled an initiative that would have added a provision to the California Constitution stating that the "Constitution shall not be construed by the courts to afford greater rights to criminal defendants than those afforded by the Constitution of the United States." That measure was invalid because it improperly attempted to strip California's courts of their role as independent interpreters of the state's constitution.

A copy of the writ petition filed today is available at http://equaljusticesociety.org/prop8 and http://www.apalc.org./

The NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund, Inc. (naacpldf.org) was founded in 1940 under the leadership of Thurgood Marshall. Although LDF's primary purpose was to provide legal assistance to poor African Americans, its work over the years has brought greater justice to all Americans.

Founded in 1968, MALDEF (maldef.org), the nation's leading Latino legal civil rights organization, promotes and protects the rights of Latinos through litigation, advocacy, community education and outreach, leadership development, and higher education scholarships.

The Asian Pacific American Legal Center (apalc.org) is a nonprofit organization dedicated to advocating for civil rights, providing legal services and education, and building coalitions to positively influence and impact Asian Pacific Americans and to create a more equitable and harmonious society. APALC is affiliated with the Asian American Justice Center, the Asian American Institute in Chicago, and the Asian Law Caucus in San Francisco.

The Equal Justice Society (equaljusticesociety.org) is a national strategy group heightening conscious on race in the law and popular discourse. Using a three-pronged strategy of law and public policy advocacy, cross-disciplinary convenings and strategic public communications, EJS seeks to restore race equity issues to the national consciousness, build effective progressive alliances, and advance the discourse on the positive role of government.

This is why outreach is not a futile exercise; these groups are stepping up and doing something.

Obama To End Abstinence-Based AIDS Education And Family Planning

Finally, this ineffective madness will be stopped.

via Joe. My. God. by Joe on 11/10/08

Some excellent early news on the Obama administration comes via Wonk Room:

Advisers to President-elect Barack Obama are indicating that "Obama will reverse U.S. family planning and AIDS prevention strategies that have long linked global funding to anti-abortion and abstinence education." The Obama reversal is a return to an approach that is based on solid evidence and public health rather than ideology, and a recognition of needs on the ground rather than the need to please domestic political constituencies.

On January 21 2001, President Bush reinstated the Mexico City Policy (the global gag rule), requiring NGOs receiving federal funding to refrain from using their own money to perform or promote abortion services in other countries. While the policy was "purportedly designed to reduce abortion by limiting a woman's access to abortion services, and to ensure that U.S. funding for family planning services overseas is completely separate from abortion activities," in actuality the rule has denied "many NGOs access to in-kind donations of the very contraceptives that can prevent recourse to abortions"

Countless lives will likely be saved by this move.

No Bradley Effect Seen In Presidential Race

RIP Bradley Effect. May you never be heard from again.

No Bradley Effect Seen In Presidential Race

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by The Huffington Post News Editors on 11/7/08

WASHINGTON — Whether whites supported Barack Obama or not, they don't seem to have lied to pollsters about it.

Obama's election triumph on Tuesday presented no evidence of the so-called Bradley effect, in which whites who oppose a black politician mislead pollsters about whom they will vote for. Instead, national and state pre-election polls were generally accurate in reflecting voters' preferences in the presidential contest.

"I certainly hope this drives a stake through the heart of that demon," Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political scientist and polling authority, said of the Bradley effect.

The phenomenon is named after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who in 1982 lost the race for California governor after leading in the polls. There were similar contests over the following decade in which black candidates facing white opponents had comfortable leads in polls, only to lose or narrowly win the elections.

Critics have said such turnabouts might have been largely the product of poor polling. Others have concluded that some whites, nervous about appearing to harbor anti-black feelings, in fact misled pollsters up through the early 1990s but that such behavior has faded over time.

Obama, who will become the first African-American president, defeated Republican John McCain on Tuesday by 52 percent to 46 percent with nearly all votes counted.

If the Bradley effect were a factor, pre-election polls should have consistently overstated Obama's share of the vote, or understated McCain's. Instead, most did a solid job of previewing how the vote would go, both nationally and in crucial states.

Shortly before Election Day, an NBC News-Wall Street Journal survey showed Obama ahead 51 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. The Gallup Poll showed a 53 percent to 42 percent Obama lead, while CBS News had Obama up 51 percent to 42 percent.

An Associated Press-Yahoo News poll in late October had Obama ahead 51 percent to 43 percent. An AP-GfK poll in mid-October showed a virtual tie, 44 percent for Obama to 43 percent for McCain.

Web sites that combine major polls to estimate support also performed well. Among some popular sites, had Obama ahead 52 percent to 44 percent, saw Obama up 52 percent to 45 percent, and gave Obama a 52 percent to 46 percent advantage.

Links:

http://www.pollster.com
http://www.realclearpolitics.com
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

Such accuracy was a relief to pollsters rattled last winter when widespread projections of an Obama victory in the New Hampshire primary were upended after Hillary Rodham Clinton won narrowly.

"We're getting much more sophisticated estimates," said University of Michigan political scientist and polling analyst Michael Traugott, citing improved techniques.

Among them is the increased polling of people who have cell phones but no landlines. A Pew Research Center report in September, and exit polls of voters conducted Tuesday for The Associated Press and the television networks, suggest that people who have only cells tend to vote more Democratic than people like them with only landlines.

Many state surveys were impressively accurate also.

For North Carolina, gave McCain a pre-election edge of less than 1 percentage point. That state finally was awarded to Obama on Thursday, when he had a 14,000-vote lead out of 4.2 million votes cast. http://www.realclearpolitics.com

Pre-election polls by Quinnipiac University, Mason-Dixon and AP-GfK all showed Obama ahead by 2 percentage points in Florida, which the Democrat won by 3 points. The combined estimate for Pennsylvania by put Obama up 8 points, and he won by 11. http://www.pollster.com

None of this means race was not a factor on Tuesday.

Whites nationally preferred McCain by 12 percentage points, while 95 percent of blacks backed Obama, according to exit polls. Seven percent of whites said race was important in choosing a candidate, and they backed the Republican 2-1.

Analysts said any reluctance to support Obama because he is black may have been overwhelmed this year by a desire to support the candidate people thought would fix the struggling economy. They also said the Bradley effect has faded as Americans have become used to blacks winning local elections and as the 1990s' more intense focus on crime and welfare has ebbed.

The Bradley effect was "a product of a particular political environment that seems to have passed us by," said Daniel Hopkins, a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard University who wrote a study this summer concluding that the phenomenon has disappeared.

What Do I Do When I Get to Minute 16: My Big Fat Gay Blog Piece

Even I have my 15 minutes of fame!

This piece was posted on Bilerico Project (my favorite LGBT blog) on Thursday and then was referenced by Andrew Sullivan (as: " Cindy Rizzo attacks Dan Savage," as if that's all I did in the piece).   Well you know what they say--I don't care how they mention my name, as long as they spell it right.  That link from Sullivan brought 3000 people to Bilerico to read my piece.  This is how this blog thing works.

I must admit I've been fretting about this piece every since it went live.  While it's nice to have your own blog that your friends  read and say nice things about, it's a whole other thing to have your views out there in the ether where so many more people go. Oy.  I have spent the weekend growing a thicker skin.  How do you think it looks??

Our Choice on Prop 8 and African Americans: Reckless Carping or Productive Change?

via The Bilerico Project by guest@bilerico.com (Guest Blogger) on 11/6/08

Editors' Note: Guest blogger Cindy Rizzo is a long time Projector. She blogs at Personal=Political=Polemical.

Losing California has been a major demoralizing event for our community and there's no way to minimize that. Frankly I feel robbed--robbed of the opportunity to bask in the Obama victory, robbed of the opportunity to be excited about the Democratic majority in the US Senate and in my local New York State Senate, and robbed of the belief that there was real momentum building for a widespread progressive renewal in the US.

On Wednesday, the day after Election Day, I felt hung over, exhausted, depressed, angry, marginalized. And I knew that if I wrote anything about the election that day, I might regret it after I'd had a good night's sleep.

Not so with many in our community. Blog pieces and listserv posts were littered with angry invectives about the African American vote in California. These writers actually wondered aloud why they had to be accountable for their own attitudes on race when clearly African Americans were not equally accountable for their views on homosexuality. Ignoring over a century of historical context, they seemed to be saying, "Now, see, here are the real bigots."

Continue reading "Our Choice on Prop 8 and African Americans: Reckless Carping or Productive Change?"...

Shifting Gears: Transforming Obama's Campaign into a Movement ...

This is a little wonky, but it goes to what I've been saying about Obama calling his campaign a "movement" and wondering, if that's true, what he intends to do with the movement once he's in office.

Shifting Gears: Transforming Obama's Campaign into a Movement for Change

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by Peter Dreier on 11/6/08

For the first time in history, Americans elected a former community organizer as their President. Barack Obama is going to need all those organizing skills to be an effective leader. To achieve a progressive agenda, Obama will have to win over some reluctant Democrats and a few moderate Republicans. Like Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan, Obama can use his bully pulpit to inspire and educate Americans to help move the country in a new direction. But like those two transformational presidents, Obama will also need to get the ground troops mobilized, in key states and Congressional districts, to put pressure on members who might otherwise sit on the fence.

Obama can learn valuable lessons from FDR, who recognized that his ability to push New Deal legislation through Congress depended on the pressure generated by protestors and organizers. He once told a group of activists who sought his support for legislation, "You've convinced me. Now go out and make me do it."

As Depression conditions worsened, and as grassroots worker and community protests escalated throughout the country, Roosevelt became more vocal, using his bully pulpit--in speeches and radio addresses--to promote New Deal ideas. Labor and community organizers felt confident in proclaiming, "FDR wants you to join the union." With Roosevelt setting the tone, and with allies in Congress, grassroots activists won legislation guaranteeing workers' right to organize, the minimum wage, family assistance for mothers, Social Security, banking reform, and the 40-hour week.

Some pundits are already trying to diminish Obama's accomplishment. They have attributed Obama's victory to the troubled economy, Bush's unpopularity, or to the Illinois Senator's personal charisma. All these factors mattered, but the real key to Obama's success was grassroots organizing.

The Obama campaign hired hundreds of organizers from labor unions, community and environmental organizations, and religious groups. They, in turn, recruited tens of thousands of volunteers and trained them in the skills of community organizing. They used doorknocking, small house meetings, cell phones, and the Internet to motivate and energize supporters. They used the Internet and social networks to raise funds, in small and large amounts, from the largest-ever donor base. They opened more local offices than any other presidential campaign, including outposts in small towns and suburbs in traditionally Republican areas.

Many organizations and constituencie,s outside the official campaign, had a hand in Obama's win. Groups as diverse as MoveOn.Org, labor unions, community groups like ACORN, environmental and consumer organizations like the Sierra Club and US Action, civil rights and women's groups, student activists, and many others can claim a part not only of Obama's triumph but also the dramatic increase in Democratic victories in the House and Senate by educating and mobilizing voters .

These organizing efforts account for the unprecedented increase in voter registration and voter turnout, especially among first-time voters, young people, African Americans, Hispanics, and union members.

Now Obama's supporters will need to transform that electoral energy into a grassroots movement for change. Political campaigns frequently promise to sustain the momentum after election day, but they rarely do. (The late Senator Paul Wellstone, who built a strong progressive coalition in Minnesota, was a notable exception). The lists of volunteers, email addresses, donors, and other key ingredients get lost or put on the shelf until the next election, when the campaign almost starts from scratch.

But from the outset, the Obama campaign recognized that winning the election on November 4 was only the first stage of a broader crusade to help America live up to its potential. So now comes the really hard part. Can Obama's supporters transform the electoral campaign into a grassroots movement? Can they turn campaign volunteers into ongoing community activists? Can they keep many of those organizers employed to sustain and expand the political base that catapulted Obama and Congressional Democrats into office? Can they keep the fragmented mosaic of issue-oriented activists from breaking off into their separate silos, each pursuing their own agendas? Can they agree on a small number of top policy priorities -- for the first year, the first term, and the second term -- and wage effective campaigns to achieve legislative victories? Can they take advantage of the key progressive think tanks, such as the Center for American Progress, the Economic Policy Institute, the Center on Budget & Policy Priorities, and others, to generate accessible policy ideas that reporters, columnists, and activists can use to help promote the Democratic agenda?

The success of the conservative movement, starting in the late 1970s, was due in large measure to the self-discipline of its varied parts -- right-wing foundations, think tanks, radio and TV talk shows, magazines and websites, corporate funders, grassroots groups like the NRA and the Christian Coalition, and Republican Party officials and activists -- to stifle their differences and coordinate their stategies and tactics. Political operatives like Grover Norquist -- who runs Americans for Tax Reform but who is really the conservative movement's chief organizer -- kept the right-wing machine well-oiled. But the Bush Administration was too incompetent to sustain that brittle coalition. The 2008 election revealed the cracks within the GOP coalition, especially between economic conservatives within Big Business and the social conservatives of the Religious Right and the NRA.

In 1992, the last time Americans elected a Democratic president, many Americans hoped that Bill Clinton's victory would usher in a new era economic and social reform. But Clinton, who received only 43% of the overall vote -- with 38% for George H.W. Bush and 19% for Ross Perot -- was elected without a ma jority mandate. Equally important, his own party, while capturing a majority of the seats in Congress, was deeply divided, with many members closely linked to big business interests who opposed progressive taxation, Keynesian pump-priming, and social spending.

Not suprisingly, Congress quickly rejected Clinton's economic stimulus and jobs plan, which included a large public works initiative, which some of his own middle-of-the-road advisors viewed as a budget-buster rather than as an investment in rebuilding the economy. They also rejected his health care reform proposal, due in large measure to the intensive lobbying and public relations campaign launched by the insurance and pharmaceutical industries.

The problem was compounded by the Clintonites failure to unify and mobilize their political base around a legislative agenda. Instead, progressives and liberals fragmented into different camps over the economic stimulus plan and health care reform.

The current situation is both similar and different. Obama earned a healthy majority (52.4%) of the popular vote. The Democrats expanded their margins in both the Senate and the House, capturing several longstanding "red" seats. Depending on the outcome of several tight races (in Georgia, Minnesota, and Alaska), they now have at least 57 seats in the Senate (if we include the two independents, Bernie Sanders and Joe Leiberman).

But several of them are moderate, corporate-friendly Democrats, like Mary Landreiu of Louisiana and Max Baucus of Montana as well as some newcomers. They will be, at best, reluctant reformers. That gives the handful of moderate Republicans in the Senate -- especially Pennsylvania's Arlen Spector, Maine's Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins -- enormous influence. Activists, as well as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, will need to focus attention on these moderate Dems and Republicans to support a progressive agenda.

Although some conservative and mainstream pundits are already claiming that despite Obama's victory, America is basically a "center right" nation, public opinion polls reveal that a significant majority of Americans want a more activist government around economic, environmental and consumer issues.

Obama understands that it won't be easy to enact a economic stimulus package than includes infrastructure projects and green jobs, reform health care, pull U.S. troops from Iraq, strengthen labor laws, tackle global warming, help homeowners avoid foreclosure and strengthen bank regulations, and adopt a progressive tax plan. The energy industry, the pharmaceutical and insurance lobbies, the big defense contractors, and others will be working overtime to thwart Obama's progressive policy agenda.

"Nothing in this country worthwhile has ever happened except when somebody somewhere was willing to hope," Obama said during the campaign. Change comes about by "imagining, and then fighting for, and then working for, what did not seem possible before."

As Obama assembles his "inside" White House team and his Cabinet and sub-Cabinet appointments, he will need to pay equal attention to the "outside" efforts of activists, think tanks, and others who he'll need to build support for his agenda.

Obama has clearly touched a nerve in America's body politic. Americans are hungry for hope and ready for reform. But it will require Obama to use all his rhetorical, organizing and political skills to shape public opinion, encourage Americans to mobilize, and re-invent the spirit and momentum of his campaign into a grassroots movement to move the country in a new direction.

Peter Dreier is the E.P. Clapp Distinguished Professor of Politics at Occidental College

Arianna Huffington: The Winners and Losers of Campaign '08

I would have included Oprah among the winners. Other than that, I think she's pretty much on target.

The Winners and Losers of Campaign '08

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by Arianna Huffington on 11/6/08

WINNERS:

The Davids - Axelrod and Plouffe: they spearheaded a near flawless campaign.

Katie Couric: her multi-part interview with Sarah Palin was the turning point in how the country saw Palin -- and by extension John McCain. And she did it in a way that left no room for accusations of being unfair or playing "Gotcha!"

Colin Powell, Scott McClellan, Ken Adelman, Chris Buckley, Kenneth Duberstein, et al: crossing party lines to endorse the eventual winner can't hurt the rep.

Saturday Night Live: went from "Is that still on?" to Must See TV (or, at least, Must See on YouTubeTV)

Tina Fey: her take on Palin was pitch perfect; a comedy mugging for the ages. And with Palin's obvious weight loss during the campaign, she ended up looking more and more like her 30 Rock doppelganger.

Sarah Palin: lost an election but there has to be a reality show in her future.

Michelle Obama: smarts, grace, style, charm, and a serious "good mommy" vibe -- she's got the whole package.

The View: went from gal chat to political headline maker.

MSNBC: Keith, Rachel, Chris... they sent a collective tingle went up the leg of progressive viewers everywhere.

The Internet: click here.

LOSERS:

Joe Lieberman: failed to deliver Democrats, independents, or Jews. And on the way to losing his committee chairmanships.

Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, Dick Morris, and hate-mongers everywhere: the stink didn't stick to Obama but it stuck to them.

Bill Clinton: it's gonna take a lot of work to repair the rep.

John McCain: see Bill Clinton.

Liddy Dole: see Clinton and McCain. Her "Godless" ad will be taught in What Not to Do poli sci classes for a century.

George W. Bush: the repudiation of his presidency was overwhelming and across-the-board.

The Republican Party: the emptiness of its philosophic underpinnings was exposed for all to see.

Joe the Plumber: the clock just hit 15 minutes, and the wakeup call will not be pleasant. Joe the Plumber, meet Clara Peller ("Where's the beef?!").

You're Gonna Love These Kids: Letters to President Obama from 4th Graders in Harlem

This was too cute to pass up. I wonder what the issue is with the cops and the Lincoln Tunnel? And the lines in Pathmark? LOL

Letters to President Obama from Fourth Graders in Harlem

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by Lauren Rubinfeld on 11/6/08

By the time the school day began at 8:05 on Wednesday morning, I had already read what felt like hundreds of articles and listened to hundreds of commentators about this historic election. But, as my students entered the classroom chanting "Yes We Can" I knew that the 25 strongest voices in my life were yet to be heard.

Nothing has hit me as hard as the letters my 4th graders in Harlem wrote to their new president. A few are pasted below.

Dear President Obama,

I am so happy you are our new president! And it is not just because you are black, it is because you have some great ideas! And I wanted to be a singer, dancer, and actress but you open new doors for me. You open the doors for everybody. Now I think that now I can be the first female black president! And we went from black people not being able to vote and that changed and then black people never got a chance to be president but you changed that. And for that, it is like you are my and the whole world's hero!

Love (a 9 year old),
Tatiana

P.S. I won't put TV before homework.

Dear President Obama,

Congratulations. I'm glad we have our first black president and I'm glad we all (the United States) have a great president like you! I am very sorry about what happened with your grandmother, but I know if she was here right now, she will be very proud of you! I am very sure you will make the best decisions for all of America! I was hoping you can make a recycling rule to help something called Global Warming.

Love,
E'Raya

Dear President Obama,

I want to say you are the bomb. I love all your speeches. Even my grandma does. I feel sorry for your grandmother but she's there up in heaven watching over you. When you get to the white house you will have our help.

I'm so happy that you are becoming president. Can you make a change about the cops? They need to pay more attention at the Lincoln Tunnel.

Write back.

Your friend,
Asia

Dear President Obama,

I like the way you think about turning off the T.V. and letting kids do their homework. I know so many things that the people in the world want you to fix. Do you think you can do it? We CAN make change. I believe you. Everybody believes you. Barack, we can do it. Yes, we can.
Don't forget leadership and responsibility is what we are looking for.

Change we make. Change we believe.

Sincerely,
Hawa

Dear President Obama,

I knew you would win. You easily won by a landslide. Do you think you can lower taxes? Just 20 dollars. My mom wants to move. I do too. The house we want to move to cost twice as much. So, can you please do that? I hope you have a good time being president. I know I would. I also hope you get free time. How did you get to spend time with family and do the election? Also can you really bend the rules? If you can please make children do less homework. Especially on holidays. On holidays they load us with homework. One last request. I promise it's my last one. Can you make Friday a weekend like Saturday and Sunday?

Sincerely,
Darnell

Dear President Obama,

Congratulations on your win to be president of the United States of America. What are you going to change about littering, gas, and wars? Are you going to make hunting stop? Are you going to lower taxes? Are you going to give more money to schools? What are you going to do about stock markets? What are you going to do about parking spaces? What are you going to do about more jail time, book store prices, gas prices, robbers, the laws, houses, and long lines in Pathmark?

Your Biggest Fan,
Rafi

Dear Barack Obama,

My name is Shareef and I am writing to you to say congratulations on being the first black President. Your wife must be very proud of you. Also your kids too must be proud. Also I'm African American too and I might be just like you. When you get to the white house please try to stop the war for once and for all. Obama I'm very proud of you especially my mom. She's really proud because she woke up 5:30 AM to go vote for you and I went with her. Please write back to me when you get a chance. To tell you, I'm nine years old in the 4th grade. Obama, you're the man.

Sincerely,
Shareef

Now Let's See Them Call the Fist Bump A Terrorist Symbol

So our children can fly

So our children can fly

via The Bilerico Project by bil@bilerico.com (Bil Browning) on 11/5/08

"Rosa sat so Martin could stand. Martin stood so Barack could run. Barack ran so our children could fly."

Voters Around The Country: Long Lines, Historic Crowds

Amazing stuff from the most unlikely places.

Voters Around The Country: Long Lines, Historic Crowds

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by The Huffington Post News Editors on 11/4/08

Voters are sending in incredible stories from throughout the country, many detailing long, but moving, lines, stacked with energetic supporters of both candidates. There is, it seems, an up-tick in student participation. And more than one reader was in awe at how historically unique this voter turnout was from past election. Here are some emails -- send us yours here:

Bucks County, Pennsylvania
I live in Northampton Township in Lower Bucks County PA. Polls opened here at 7 am. I got to my polling place at an elementary school about 8 am. There was a line of about 10 people ahead of me and the poll workers said the line was out the door just a few minutes earlier. I was voter 161 -- which means that 10% of registered voters in my polling place had voted in the first hour. Yowza. In off years and in primaries, the polls works said they had maybe 25% turn out.

Oklahoma
As a native Oklahoman I have never waited more than a few minutes to cast a ballot. This morning was different. When I arrived at my polling place at 7am there was already a line. Voting took me a total of 45 minutes, I know this is not much compared with the hours long waits faced in other states but for Oklahoma it's historic.

Columbus, Ohio
At 6:10 I was 31st in line. By the time the doors opened there were more than 100 in line. I am 57 years old and this is the first time there were more than 3 people present prior to the doors opening. Usually I am the first and only voter at opening.

College Stations, Pennsylvania
More than 1,000 Penn State students have shown up

University of New Hampshire
Students at University of New Hampshire reported standing in line starting at 4:30.

Orlando, Florida
I live in a very red part of Orlando. I moved to my current residence 15 years ago, and have voted in every election, it is always old white people or young blond republican moms. This morning, it was black, white, young, old, Hispanic, it was remarkable, it took about 30 minutes, the poll workers were hyper organized and enthusiastic. I actually teared up on the way home realizing I was privileged enough to vote for the first black president.

Baton Rouge, Louisiana
I live in Zachary, just north of Baton Rouge, Louisiana. I was so pleasantly surprised to see a line at the school where we vote! When we arrived at 7:15, there were 3 alphabetical lines with about 25 people in each. Only had to wait 30 minutes to cast my vote. Someone who was leaving as we arrived said she got there at 6:15, just after the polls opened, and the lines were HUGE! She had waited an hour to vote.

Blacksburg, Virginia
The polls opened at 6:00Am and the line was around the block but it only took 38 minutes to vote. The greatest part for me was seeing the youth turn out. The woman in front of me was a college student and it was her first election and she was really jazzed.

St. Louis County, Missouri
I arrived at the polling place at 5:40 a.m. There were at least 200 people ahead of me and the lines were just as long when I exited the polling place. Someone commented they didn't realize we had that many residents in the community where I live.

Indianapolis, Indiana
Two hour wait...but it was well worth it! Arrived at the polls at 6am sharp and there were already close to 300 people in line.

Sioux Falls South Dakota
I always get to my polling station 20 minutes before it opens. It has been a game between a few friends of mine that live in the same district to see who gets there first. In the past 12 years I have been in the first 3. Today I was 22 in line and by the time the poll opened there was nearly 200 people.

DeKalb County, Georgia
My polling station is the gym of the North Peachtree Baptist Church on Tilly Mill Road in Dunwoody, Georgia. I got to the polling station before six this morning and found a line of about two dozen people and the line continued to grow as we reached opening time. At least half of the people on line were African-Americans, many of whom had their children or were accompanied by an elderly person.

Detroit, Michigan
At 6:35pm, I arrived my polling place on the northwest side of Detroit, MI. It was still dark and about 200 people were already in line! I had my hot tea, breakfast sandwich, lawn chair and patience. I met a 19 year old young woman who just registered this summer at her church through the Barack Obama campaign. It took us about 1 1/2 hours to get to the table to acquire our ballots.

My Voting Experience

Because I have to work (wouldn't you know we're in a crunch time in my office) and I knew the lines would be long, I went to vote at 6am. Luckily my neighborhood Starbucks was open and I could get some coffee to go. When I got to the polling place at 6:07am, the line already stretched around the corner. I just started laughing, mostly at myself for thinking I had beat the system. I got in line and people were generally in a good mood. I was reading stuff on my iPhone and said aloud that the small NH town of Dixville Notch, first in the nation to vote, had gone for Obama (first Democrat since LBJ!). Well, that was already old news to the people around me.

The line moved pretty quickly and after about 20 minutes, I got into the school gym. At that point, I had to get into the line for my district (they look up your district number on a list). I realized that the big line moved relatively fast because we were all disbursed into these dozen or so smaller lines. At that point it was another 10 minute wait to get my name checked off, sign the thing and get into the booth.

I voted and walked to Columbus Ave thinking I'd take the bus to work instead of the subway since it was so early. That was fun. We passed long lines at polling places on the Upper West Side (there was a place in the 70s where the line went around 2 corners, and remember, it wasn't even 7am yet!) and then when we got to Times Square, we heard some random group of people chanting, "Obama, Obama!" Totally amazing.

My final voting related act was to go to Starbucks for my free tall coffee. Just tell them you voted and it's yours.

Better than that Free Coffee From Starbucks

Now here's a real motivator for voting.

Free Sex Toys For Voting: "Sex Crosses Party Lines"

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by The Huffington Post News Editors on 11/3/08

Just when you thought it was safe to focus on the issues in this historic election season, a chain of sex toy shops has joined retailers, restaurateurs and other businesses across the nation in the time-honored tradition of rewarding Americans who go to the polls.

Babeland, with stores in New York, Los Angeles and Seattle, is offering a pair of self-gratifying incentives for voters who present their registration cards, ballot stubs or "word of honor" that they voted next Tuesday.

The rewards are no-so-subtle reminders of this year's campaign rhetoric. For men, it's the "Maverick," a "sleeve" for self-pleasuring. According to a press release, "He's always there to lend a hand, he works for every man, and he bucks the status quo." Women can choose the "Silver Bullet" mini-vibrator, which is "a magical solution to difficult problems" and "a great stress-reliever during these troubled economic times!" The promotion lasts through Nov. 11.

More Election Related Syndromes: Obama Overload

Here's another pop psychology analysis of what many of us are experiencing. I imagine the next piece will be about post-election depression (not having anything to look forward to) - even if he wins!  I'm considering bundling all of these posts into an anthology that can comprise an Electoral Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Disorders.

I Have Reached Obama Overload

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by Pam Atherton on 11/3/08

We've got Obama Overload at our house.

You may not find this particular psychological disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Disorders (DSM), but I can assure you, it exists. I know because we have it.

It's certainly not one of those things you can predict. I thought we were normal, pretty-much-not-interested-in-politics type of people. I've spent my career in radio staying away from talking about it. (It's too divisive, and I need all the listeners I can get.)

I do know when it started. I can pinpoint the day. It was the day John McCain brought Sarah Palin onto the ticket as VP. That was the day my sleeping political animal awoke and came unleashed.

I couldn't sleep that night. I was too ticked off. I couldn't stop talking about it the next day. My friends (who might not be Democrats) told me to shut up. I turned to the only method of expression I had that wouldn't get me thrown out of restaurants. I wrote.

I hadn't written essays or op/ed pieces since college when I was editor of the newspaper. I've been a broadcaster for 20 years and we don't need to know how to string sentences coherently or how to spell someone's last name properly, or what kind of punctuation goes after a sentence fragment. (We just use dots.) But the choice of Sarah Palin for Vice President so insulted me that I pulled out my old AP style book and went to town. I wrote until 2 in the morning, and then I sent it out to everyone on my email list who might lean even slightly to the left of far right.

When I got up the next morning I was greeted with a massive amount of email. I realized that I had struck a chord, especially with women. I wasn't the only one insulted, nor the only one pissed off. And my email list encouraged me to write more.

So my next piece I submitted to the Huffington Post. And when they accepted it, I got another blast of euphoria. There were even more people who felt as incensed as I did! And I was connecting with them.

This, my friends, is the start. Sadly, I must say, the Huffington Post is the gateway drug of Obama Overload. I know. Because I didn't just check to see if anyone had commented on my piece, I started reading other pieces. And then other sections. Then older pieces of the writers I really liked. Soon I was checking HuffPo, (as we addicts like to call it), several times a day. I was sending url addresses out in emails. I was watching the slideshows of the Obama's PDAs and tearing up at the realness of it. I was watching the debates because I WANTED to, not because I had to. I was hooked.

So I hear you say, "But that is simply an addiction." That's how it starts, my friends. It only gets worse. Here's how you know you when you have crossed the line into Obama Overload (OO):

You find yourself putting off important tasks to read "just one more" political article. Soon it's 2 in the afternoon and you are sitting at the computer, still in your nightgown, reaching for the eyedrops to soothe your bleary eyes. People call and ask when you'll have their project done. You say you are in the middle of something really important now and will call them back when you break free. You just never break free.

Polls. I don't have to explain. All of you other addicts and OO'ers out there already know what I mean. You know where they all are. And you check them every hour.

You start talking with your children about history and they don't walk out of the room. Your daughter is a 22 year-old college student and only drops by when she's out of cash or needs the laundry done. Now you spend copious amounts of time together talking about the lost 2000 election and hanging chads, about what the Constitution says the job of the VP entails, and how the Republican Party ain't the way it used to be

You use certain code words around people to determine what their political affiliation is. And when you find that someone you thought was a McCain fan turns out to be an Obama supporter, you make new friends for life.

You have no real sense of time. You tell your daughter, who is waiting patiently in the car, that you will only be in the store for 10 minutes while you pick up the bubble mailers that are 3/$1.00, but in fact you emerge several hours later, (only after the security guard hustles you out because the store is closing). This is because you have been standing in the store aisle talking about Obama with one of your "new friends."

You get emails from your friends saying "I don't want to talk politics with you anymore. Please stop. Don't text me, either." Granted, those are from your Republican friends, but they are friends nonetheless.

You start downloading Obama ringtones. You attach them to the numbers of your Republican friends so you can at least have a laugh each time they call you. Plus the added bonus of pissing them off when they hear your phone ring.

You humanize your cats. When Clawdine, the little cat, starts horking up a hairball, you ask what her problem is. Your daughter replies "She's choking over the thought of Palin as Vice President."

And here's how I knew we had a real problem:

Your daughter admonishes Tim Robbins about voting. In a dream. Your daughter wakes up and tells you that she dreamed she saw Guy Ritchie. She asked him if he had voted for Obama, but he told her that he is not an American citizen. She tells him to spread the word to his American friends. Tim Robbins approaches and she asks HIM if he has voted for Obama. He says he is planning on it. She says "That's not good enough! Get off your duff. Early voting is still open. Don't plan... DO!"

I have contacted a therapist for help with our problem. After we talked for 2 hours about why America needs Obama, she agreed to put us in a 12-step program. The first step is making sure Obama gets elected. I think the other 11 will fall into place on November 5th.

Simpsons Characters Weigh in on the Election

Here's a fun interview by a Norwegian reporter with Harry Shearer, the voice of many Simpsons characters, giving their various opinions about the election.  Listen for Waylon Smithers to hear what he's paying close attention to.

Today's Polls, 3 AM Edition

Not sure these will be the last polls we'll see, but it's important to keep our eyes on CO, PA, and NM, ranging from 5-10 points ahead for Obama. Everything else we need is comfortably in double digits. Of course, there are plenty of non-essential states were he is ahead: VA, OH, NV. Some people think it will be an early night. What do you think?

Today's Polls, 3 AM Edition (11/3)

via FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right by noreply@blogger.com (Nate Silver) on 11/3/08

Barack Obama's position has become somewhat stronger since our update this afternoon. We now have him with a 5.8 point lead in the national popular vote, and winning the election 96.3 percent of the time. Earlier today, those figures were 5.4 and 93.7, respectively.

I continue to find a hair's worth of tightening on balance in the state-by-state polls -- even as Obama's position in the national trackers seems to be roughly as strong as it has ever been. This, ironically, is the exact reverse of the position we saw earlier in the week, when the national polls seemed to be tightening even as the state polls weren't.

However, Obama's win percentage has ticked upward again for a couple of reasons. Firstly, he's gotten some relatively good numbers out of Pennsylvania since our last update, with PPP and Zogby giving him leads of 8 and 14 points, respectively, and Rasmussen showing his lead expanding to 6 points after having been at 4 before. (The Zogby poll is probably an outlier, but may serve to balance out outliers like Strategic Vision on the other side).

Secondly, McCain's clock has simply run out. While there is arguable evidence of a small tightening, there is no evidence of a dramatic tightening of the sort he would need to make Tuesday night interesting.

Related to this is the fact that there are now very, very few true undecideds left in this race. After accounting for a third-party vote, which looks as though it will come in at an aggregate of 2 percent or so (after doing some work on this tonight, I concluded that I had been slightly underestimating the third-party vote before), I am showing only about 2.7 percent of the electorate left to allocate between the two major-party candidates. Even if John McCain were to win 70 perecnt of the remaining undecideds (which I don't think is likely), that would only be worth a net of about a point for him. Frankly, McCain's winning scenarios mainly involve the polls having been wrong in the first place -- because of a Bradley Effect or something else. It is unlikely that the polls will "tighten" substantially further -- especially when Obama already has over 50 percent of the vote.

It's very late, obviously, so we won't get into too much more detail, but a couple of quick notes.

-- Don't worry too much about that SurveyUSA result in Minnesota, which shows Obama just 3 points ahead. SurveyUSA's polling in Minnesota has been very, very weird all year; they've never shown Obama with larger than a 6 point lead in their likely voter model, and had McCain ahead in the state as recently as October 1st. SurveyUSA does not have a Republican lean in general, but in Minnesota, it has consistently had a huge one.

--A couple of the national polls have now started to predict how undecided voters will behave and allocate them between the two major-party candidates. I use the versions of these surveys before any such allocations are made, as from my point of view it isn't the pollster's job to get into the prediction business (our model has its own ideas about how to handle undecideds).