The Cutest Young Journalist In the US

This adorable budding TV reporter has really got it goin' on. Here's his report on a speech given by Joe Biden and his actual interview with the VP candidate. I think you'll love him.

The "Straight Log Cabin Boy" Endorses Obama

Bill Weld is the honorary, straight Log Cabin Republican - the only one of them who's endorsing Obama. As a former Massachusetts resident who lived there throughout Weld's time in office, I just had to post this.

Former Mass. GOP Gov. Weld Endorses Obama

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by The Huffington Post News Editors on 10/24/08

Former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld, a Republican, is endorsing Democrat Barack Obama for president, citing the senator's steady leadership, good judgment and ability to unify Democrats, Republicans and independents.

"Senator Obama is a once-in-a-lifetime candidate who will transform our politics and restore America's standing in the world," Weld said in a statement released Friday. "We need a president who will lead based on our common values and Senator Obama demonstrates an ability to unite and inspire.

Forget OH, VA, FL - It's CO That We Need

I was just looking at state polls at www.electoral-vote.com to see where things stood with my winning formula that tells us we can ignore OH, VA and FL if we get CO. Actually, I orginally said we'd need not just CO, but NH, MI, MN, NM and WI. At this point, those five states have all been counted as dark blue, safe for Obama (i.e., he's at least 10 points ahead in recent polls). Our only "leaning Obama" state in my formula is Colorado (where he's 6 points ahead), and we still need it.

Here's why. The safe states total 264 electoral votes. Colorado (or any of the 3 battlegrounds: VA, OH, FL) put him over the 270 line. Ironically, Virginia is polling a little better than Colorado. It's at 7 points ahead for Obama. But I'm sticking with Colorado because I think it has a better chance of going dark blue in the end.

One interesting and frightening new development. West Virginia's latest poll is showing McCain pulling ahead by 6 points there (after he was only ahead by 2). The pundits explain that the intensely negative and hateful stuff coming from the McCain/Palin campaign may be taking root in WV. The Obama folks say they're not giving up and will be throwing more money and time into WV in these last 2 weeks. That's fine, as long as they don't neglect Colorado.

Let's keep our eye on the prize and stop worrying about turning all the red states blue. We need 270 to win and that could happen in Colorado (or in Virginia or even Florida, where Obama is polling 4 points up).

Colin Powell: McCain Attacks "Over the Top"

This is the most eloquent critique of the last few weeks of McCain/Palin attacks on Obama. Colin Powell's emergence today to endorse Obama was a great development, but this short response to a reporter's question (not his talk show appearance this morning) is even better. Will be interesting to see where Powell winds up in an Obama/Biden administration.

Weekend Update Skit with Palin

Here's the second video, I hope.

Palin on SNL: Did It Help or Hurt?

I promised to post it, so here it is. First video is the opening routine with Tina Fey and Sarah Palin crossing each other like ships in the night. Second video, Weekend Update with Palin at the desk dancing in her chair while Amy Poehler does a great rap routine accompanied by dancing Eskimos and a hunted moose, seems not to be available anymore. I will post if I can.

Did this appearance help Palin (yeah, she's a good sport) or hurt her (by reinforcing the perception that she's inaccessible to the press, that McCain's debate performance was bizarre, that she can see Russia from her backyard, that's she's "hot" with little substance)?

Palin To Appear On SNL This Weekend

Don't worry if you can't stay up late, it'll be on the web tomorrow and I'll post it here!
The Huffington Post News Editors on 10/17/08

Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin plans to appear on "Saturday Night Live" this weekend, multiple sources told CNN Thursday.

"Saturday Night Live" has featured three opening skits in which former cast member and Palin lookalike Tina Fey portrays the Alaska governor.

It was not known whether Fey also will appear on Saturday night's program.

Stand Up Politics: Obama and McCain at the Al Smith Dinner

Here are the videos of the stand-up routines by Obama and McCain at the annual Al Smith Foundation dinner in NYC last night.  Watch McCain first and then Obama.  Notice the difference in tone and emphasis?  Just like the campaign!

Caption This

I couldn't resist. I really spare people a lot of vitriol I find on the blogs I read and try to only post the substantive stuff. But this was so irresistibly weird, I just had to post it.

Caption This

via Joe. My. God. by Joe on 10/16/08

More on Election Obsession Disorder

Here's a great piece by another person who shares my affliction. This epidemic has gotten so bad, that when I went to the gym this morning, they had a sign up advertising a new exercise class that was based on the themes of the election. Face it, there's no escape!

Election Consuming The Lives Of Everyone I Know

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by Joanna Lamb Looby on 10/16/08

I am an Obama supporter, and I want my life back. For those of us who have been supporting Senator Obama from the day that he announced his candidacy in Springfield, Illinois, this race has been excruciatingly long, emotionally intense, and absolutely riveting. The primary battles, the endless debates, the attacks, and the innuendo have been going on for nearly two years.

I am a political science major and a self-avowed political junkie, so it's not surprising that I am so obsessed, but this election is consuming the lives of everyone I know. Even with my previously serious political habit, I didn't used to watch TV talking heads or obsessively check the blogs, the polls, and my email for the latest political news.

My formerly apolitical husband has a crush on Rachel Maddow (I know, who doesn't?), has taken to watching hours of political shows, and now that the Red Sox are in the playoffs, his TV to-do list is getting out of control.

Our friends are also grappling with their obsession with the election, and how time-consuming it has become. Every time we get together we talk politics. There used to be room for other ideas, books we had read, movies we had seen, but now all is politics. We had a get-together for our son's birthday last week, and because my in-laws are mostly voting Republican, we all tried to stay clear of political discussions. We failed. There is no topic right now, other than sports, and even that's debatable, that doesn't tie back to politics. Talk about the economy, education, travel, or entertainment, and you are talking about politics. Even talking about the weather becomes a full-blown policy discussion. This is not news of course; politics affects every area of our lives and always has; but I'm not used to everybody being so aware of that reality.

This morning it was my day to drive the kids to school. The sixth graders in our carpool were talking about how they would vote, if they could, on California's propositions, and which candidate they would support for president. Hint: the 11 year-old girl in my carpool was wearing a T-shirt that said "Community Organizer." I am achingly proud of my fellow citizens for their more than justified interest in this election, and I love to have so many people to talk politics with, but I am also longing for the suspense to be over already.

The ragingly schizophrenic pinball that is John McCain has only increased my sense of urgency to have this race be done -- don't get me started on Sarah Palin. I truly didn't think that the Republicans could scare me more than they did with the Bush/Cheney ticket, but astoundingly, they have exceeded my fear and loathing expectations with their choice of McCain/Palin. It is tragic to see how low the fight for the highest office in the land can go, and how the previously respectable Senator John McCain has mired himself in the muck of Rovian tactics. The longevity of this race has been grueling, but the ugliness of the past couple of weeks has been deeply disturbing.

For 20 plus months I have spent hours and hours examining the issues, studying poll numbers, sifting through rumors, reading the latest opinions, as well as being a precinct captain, phone banking, canvassing, data managing, and just generally trying to make myself useful to the campaign. I can't wait to talk about something other than politics, at least until the next cycle begins again.

My best friend called me this week from Portland and announced that she is "over democracy;" her decision came from the awful realization that the election will begin again in two years. She said she would be fine with a nice tidy monarchy, just so she wouldn't have to deal with the lunatic circus that presidential politics has become. Of course she was kidding, but I think only half, and for a second there, I could see her point. 

Need A Plumber? It's all about Joe.

Seems both John McCain and Sarah Palin can't get enough of the "average Joe." In her debate, Palin was all about Joe Sixpack and last night McCain couldn't say enough about Joe the Plumber (whose exchange with Obama was posted here yesterday). Well, Joe the P gets his 15 minutes of fame and maybe a few customers for his new business, and Obama wins another debate. Seems fair enough. As for McCain, it's back to the Senate with his good friend, you guessed it, JOE Lieberman. Below are the numbers from the debate:

 

 

Obama and McCain Face Off in Final Presidential Debate

via - Gay news daily: Towleroad.com - "Hot blog"--Newsweek by Andy on 10/15/08

Barack Obama and John McCain faced off in the final presidential debate at Hofstra University. Obama and McCain answered questions on the economy, health care, and energy, as well as negative campaigning and personal attacks. I may have more clips up later, but here is the immediate polling from CNN and CBS, which shows gains for Obama.

Of 23 undecideds in FOX's focus group, four people switched their vote following the debate. All four moved toward Obama. Said Frank Luntz: "This is a good night for Barack Obama."

CNN snap poll (above, left):

Obama Favorables: 63 before, 66 after
Obama Unfavorables: 35 before, 33 after

McCain Favorables: 51 before, 49 after
McCain Unfavorables: 45 before, 49 after

FOX Focus Group (see clip, right):

CBS snap poll:

"53% of the uncommitted voters surveyed identified Democratic nominee Barack Obama as the winner of tonight's debate. 22% said Republican rival John McCain won. 24% saw the debate as a draw.

More uncommitted voters trusted Obama than McCain to make the right decisions about health care. Before the debate, 61% of uncommitted voters said that they trust Obama on that; after, 69% said that. For McCain, 27% trusted him to manage health care before the debate; 30% said so afterwards.

63% think Obama will raise their taxes, while 48% think McCain will.

Before the debate, 54% thought Obama shared their values. That percentage rose to 63% after the debate. For McCain, 53% thought he shared their values before the debate, and 56% thought so afterwards.

CONTINUED COVERAGE

Salon: McCain loses again. "His worst move was ridiculing Obama's support for abortion rights measures that protect 'the health of the mother.' He sneered out the words, "health of the mother," and actually framed them in air quotes. His standing with women was already plummeting; watch it drop more from here."

McCain frowns, rolls eyes, and blinks more than 3,000 times.

CNN's David Gergen - ...like watching an exercise in anger management: "It then hit the personal animosity of the advertising and then I thought McCain swerved off track...He got overemotional about it. He looked angry. And it was almost an exercise in anger management up there for him to contain himself. And Obama maintained his cool, and I thought that changed the tone of the debate and Obama won the last half hour. I thought Obama really did well on education, abortion and health care."

MCCAIN'S DEER IN HEADLIGHTS MOMENT: "Zero?"

THE EYE ROLL: At Colombian leaders being targeted for assassination.

EVEN FOX NEWS DISPUTES IT: Obama battles back against tax increase accusations.

AYERS AND ACORN: Obama explains the attacks.

Watch the FULL DEBATE, AFTER THE JUMP...

 

 

Things you can do from here:

• Subscribe to - Gay news daily: Towleroad.com - "Hot blog"--Newsweek using Google Reader
• Get started using Google Reader to easily keep up with all your favorite sites

 

 

This Week's Electoral College for Geeks

I know this is a lot of information, but the news is so good I had to leave it all in. Chris Weigant, the original Electoral College Geek, presents it all for your enjoyment. The word of the day: INSURMOUNTABLE.

Electoral Math -- Obama Lead Insurmountable
The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by Chris Weigant on 10/15/08

This week's word is going to be "insurmountable." Look for it coming from the lips and pens of pundits everywhere in the next week. Because while mainstream media journalists are obviously trying to portray this race as a lot closer than it really is (better ratings that way), if Obama can just hold on to the leads he has right now -- not improve them in any way, just hold them -- then Election Day viewing parties nationwide may be over before anyone's even finished their first beer.
Remember, the East Coast returns come in first. And it's going to be all but impossible to continue the "we're in a dead heat" nonsense if Barack Obama decisively wins Florida and Virginia.
Because, at that point, Senator Barack Obama will become "President-Elect" Barack Obama.
And, at this point, Obama winning Florida and Virginia looks like a definite possibility. Actually, you could add in Ohio and say "if Obama wins any two of these, he'll win." Or even, if you really trust all the other poll numbers, "if Obama wins any one of these, he's got it in the bag."
Which (as I pointed out) will lead to a very short Election Night.
Now, of course, the map is not the territory, and the polls are not the election. Plus, the polls have been volatile and many questions remain as to their credibility. So we've got three weeks to go, and anything can happen.
But the closer we get, if Obama continues his absolute domination of the previously identified "battleground states" and maintains his lead elsewhere, then the word "insurmountable" is going to be heard more and more often in the days ahead.
We begin with a quick look at the charts, starting with the overall Electoral College status. [Click on any of these charts to see a larger image.]

[Obama's percentage starts from the bottom (blue) and McCain's starts from the top (red), and winning means getting your line over (or under, for McCain) the 50% mark. Tied states are in white.]

All of this week's charts are remarkably stable since last week's overview. Overall, two states moved stronger for McCain this week (NC, TX). North Carolina went from being tied to a very slight McCain edge, and Texas firmed up considerably. Two states weakened slightly for Obama (MN, VA). But Obama improved in four states (MO, MI, CO, WI) he had previously held, and flipped two from McCain (WV, ND). West Virginia was supposed to be a stronghold for McCain, although North Dakota has flipped previously. These two may flip right back again, though. They bear close watching in the next few days.

The chart shows a little movement, but not a whole lot, as both candidates for the most part held their ground in overall Electoral Votes ("EV"). Because of minor movement (and no states currently being tied), both candidates actually improved their numbers slightly over last week.

John McCain started off the week with 174 EV, or 32.3% of the total 538. He lost North Dakota and West Virginia, but picked up North Carolina, for a total gain of seven over last week -- 181 EV, or 33.6% of the total.

Barack Obama also improved slightly, after starting the week with 349 EV, or 64.8%. Obama added North Dakota and West Virginia (Missouri was tied for a period during the week, but wound up returning to Obama's column) for a net gain of eight electoral votes. He ends the week with 357 EV -- a new highpoint for him -- or 66.4%.

As with last week, this leaves an almost perfect split -- McCain wins one-third of the total votes, and Obama wins two-thirds.

Can you say "insurmountable"? I knew you could!

Ahem. We will now proceed, in an orderly fashion, to the breakdown charts for each candidate, starting with McCain.

[Definition of terms: Strong means 10% or better in the polls, Weak means 5% or better, and Barely is under five percent.]

Unlike last week, when the news was all bad for John McCain, the news this week is a bit more mixed. Starting with his Strong numbers, McCain gained a whopping 34 EV here by firming up his support in Texas. This slid back three when North Dakota bolted, leaving McCain up for the week here 31 EV, for a total of 131 EV.

Unfortunately for McCain, the big jump in Strong came at the expense of his Weak numbers (since Texas was Weak last week). Further adding to this was the loss of West Virginia from Weak McCain, meaning his total Weak dropped 39 EV to only 24 EV total.

McCain gained in his Barely numbers though, by turning North Carolina from being tied last week to Barely McCain this week. This, and the fact that he held his only other state in this category (Indiana) means he ended the week at 26 EV in the Barely column.

But, ominously for McCain, while last week he didn't lose anything in the metric I consider most important (Strong plus Weak), this week he actually fell eight votes here, for a total of only 155 EV. This shows the weakening of his base support in states he had considered "in the bag" and will force him to play some defense in those states.

Moving on to happier news, let's take a look at Barack Obama's chart for the week.

Obama's Strong numbers continued to improve this week, although not quite as dramatically as last week. And since he lost minimal ground in the Weak and Barely categories -- essentially holding his own -- he winds up looking pretty good at the end of the week. Obama started out the week losing Minnesota from Strong, but he then gained Wisconsin, which balanced it out (they both have 10 EV). And with the addition of Michigan (due, no doubt, to McCain pulling out of the state), he gains a total 17 EV in Strong this week, up to his best showing yet -- 245 EV. Whew! That means he only needs 25 electoral votes in this category alone to win the race outright. Obama continues to maintain a 100-plus EV lead in this category over McCain, for the second week in a row.

Obama did lose some ground in Weak, but held it to a minimum -- only five votes down from last week for a total of 44 EV. In Barely, he was down four votes to 68 EV. The significant moves between categories were Virginia moving from Weak to Barely, and Colorado and Missouri moving up to Weak.

But in the all-important Strong plus Weak, Obama has improved his numbers 12 EV over last week to a skyscraping 289 EV. For the second week in a row, if Obama just wins every state now polling at five percent or better for him, he wins the race. He is now nineteen electoral votes over what he needs, just from his Strong and Weak states alone.

Sam's Picks
Because I've been accused in the past of irrational exuberance, we turn once again to the more sober poll-watching of Sam Minter, from his site abulsme.com. His chart averages the last five state polls, while I just take the data from electoral-vote.com, so his data is less volatile than mine.

His chart combines my three charts above into one. Obama starts from the top, McCain starts from the bottom, and wherever the double baby-blue/pink line currently is determines who is ahead, measured from the centerline.

Minter's most recent comments sum up his view of the race:

New Summary:
McCain Best Case -- Obama 313, McCain 225
Obama Best Case -- Obama 313, McCain 225
If everybody gets their leans -- 364 Obama, 174 McCain

Looking at the various trends line, and visually averaging out the effects of Florida bouncing back and forth, it appears that the movement toward Obama is *still* going on. We have not yet seen a peak and a start of a reversion back to McCain as we approach the election. I keep thinking that Obama *must* be close to his maximum possible support levels, but so far, we just haven't seen the movement actually stop.

And we now have McCain's best case scenario, where he sweeps all the remaining swing states (as per today's update, NOT including Florida), being that he loses by 88 electoral votes. This is his worst position yet.

So, once again, it looks like I haven't exactly cornered the market on exuberance!

My Picks
Which brings us to my personal picks, where I allow the stars, the moon, the sun, and the current status of David Letterman (ahem) to influence my reading of the status of the race.

I was pretty conservative about things last week, because I wasn't sure whether it was all a temporary spike in the numbers. But Obama has generally held his ground this week, so I'm ready to be a bit more optimistic.

As always, the categories used are: Likely Obama (broken down to Safe Obama and Probable Obama); Likely McCain (Safe/Probable); and Tossup (broken down to Lean Obama, Lean McCain, and Too Close To Call). And at the very end is a section with the full data in all its wonktastic splendor.

Likely States -- Obama
Safe Obama (21 states, 260 EV) -- CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IA, IL, MA, MD, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI.

Not a whole lot of movement here this week. Obama added New Hampshire, whose polls have bounced back from being very weak three weeks ago to double-digit leads for Obama again. At a total 260 electoral votes, Obama is only ten away from victory in this category alone.

Probable Obama (2 states, 17 EV) -- ME, VA.
Maine should probably be moved up to Safe Obama as well, but there hasn't been a poll out of the Pine Tree State for over a week, so it's impossible to tell what is going on up there. For now, it stays as Probable Obama. But the big news this week is the addition of Virginia to Probable Obama. This could determine the outcome of the entire race. Polls are a little scattered in Virginia, but there have been two recent ones showing Obama up by over ten points, and when averaged, it seems he has better than a six point lead. So while it could easily slip back to just Lean Obama, for this week at least, I'm putting it into Probable.

Which means that for the first time, adding Likely States for Obama gives a winning number, with a total of 23 states and 277 electoral votes. If this holds, it means that Obama will win on election day no matter which way the swing states vote. And that's a milestone worth noting.

Likely States -- McCain
Safe McCain (16 states, 131 EV) -- AK, AL, AR, AZ, ID, KS, KY, LA, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY.

Mixed news here for McCain, as he loses one stay way down the list, and gains back another. The bad news for McCain is that North Dakota moves all the way down to Too Close To Call (a dramatic movement indeed), but it may not be such bad news for McCain after all. Because polling from North Dakota isn't very frequent, and is often unreliable. There just aren't that many people up there, after all. Obama is actually up by two points in the most recent poll, but many (especially those of the Republican persuasion) argue that it can't be believed. So while it is now Too Close To Call, it could easily move back into McCain's column with one or two more polls.

McCain's really good news here, though, is firming up Texas once again. This is due to the state's monstrous 34 electoral votes, which has a disproportionate effect on McCain's numbers. Hey, he could use some good news in this column, and the probability all along has been that Texas will wind up in McCain's column on Election Day.

But with this movement, McCain improves his numbers 31 EV over last week, for a total of 131 EV. Of course, this is still only about half what Obama has in this column, but good news of any kind is pretty scarce for McCain these days, so he'll have to take what he can get.

Probable McCain (3 states, 24 EV) -- GA, MS, MT.
Unfortunately for McCain, the good news of Texas moving up means bad news in this column. McCain loses Texas upwards to Safe from Probable, but (more alarmingly) he also loses West Virginia down to Too Close To Call. Now, this may (as with North Dakota) be based on nothing more than one bad poll for McCain here, but it wasn't just bad, it was devastating -- it showed Obama up by eight points. West Virginia, due to lots of (union) coal miners, has a strong and historic Democratic streak to it, and this may be reasserting itself. We really won't know until a few more polls come out of the state, and we may not even know until Election Day what is truly going on here.

When you add it all up, it means that John McCain, after holding his ground in Likely States last week, is actually down this week by eight electoral votes -- from 163 EV to 155 EV. And that's the wrong direction to be heading, with less than three weeks to go.

Tossup States
Lean Obama (3 states, 56 EV) -- FL, CO, OH.

Once again, the movement of states is most pronounced where the polls are closest. For Obama, the news was all positive in his Lean category this week. Virginia, as noted, moved up to Probable Obama. But Obama also gained two states in Lean this week, Colorado and Ohio, both up from Too Close To Call.

Some might argue for moving Florida up to Probable at this point, since the polls in Florida and Virginia have both been trending Obama all week. But the trend has been longer and more pronounced in the Old Dominion State than in the Sunshine State, so while there is a definite possibility Florida could move up next week, for the time being I'm going to remain skeptical and leave it here.

Colorado also is showing a strong trend towards Obama, and is another good candidate for moving upwards next week. Colorado has been showing a definite preference for Obama throughout the entire race, and one or two more solid polls for Obama could put it away for him there. But for now, while it moves up to Lean Obama, I can't justify moving it further upwards yet.

Obama has also held a fairly steady lead in Ohio for the past two weeks, but it's been a small lead, and he hasn't managed to increase it much in that time. So while Ohio may even fall back to Too Close To Call, for this week I'm pegging it at Lean Obama.

For the week, Obama picks up one state here and 16 electoral votes, for a total of 56 EV.

Lean McCain (1 state, 11 EV) -- IN.
No movement here, but if McCain holds his slim lead here much longer, I may consider moving Indiana up to Probable McCain. We'll see.

Too Close To Call (5 states, 39 EV) -- MO, NC, ND, NV, WV.As usual, Too Close To Call was the most volatile category this week. And the news here was all good for Obama. Two states fell into Too Close To Call from McCain this week, and both of them came from Likely -- West Virginia (from Probable McCain) and North Dakota (all the way down from Safe McCain). This is going to force McCain into playing defense in two states he thought he had locked up, which is important.

And two states left this category this week, Colorado and Ohio, both up to Lean Obama. Missouri almost moved to Lean Obama, but I'm still skeptical and want to see a few more polls before I move it.

But what is astounding to me is the list of states in this category. With the exception of Nevada (and possibly Missouri), this list is made up of states that weren't even considered as battleground states, even a few weeks ago. And all the battleground states the mainstream media has been endlessly hyping (Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan) have all moved over to Obama, to one degree or another. Now, I'm not saying some of them won't move back in the next few weeks, but still, which states are (and which are not) on that list is pretty good news for Obama at this point.

[Program Note: We've only got three more of these columns to go, kiddies! Next Wednesday, the Wednesday after that, and then a special "My Election Picks" column, which will appear on Election Day before the polls close.]

Barack Obama Likely Easy Wins -- 23 States -- 277 Electoral Votes:

Safe States -- 21 States -- 260 Electoral Votes
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington, D.C. (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10)

Probable States -- 2 States -- 17 Electoral Votes
Maine (4), Virginia (13)

John McCain Likely Easy Wins -- 19 States -- 155 Electoral Votes:

Safe States -- 16 States -- 131 Electoral Votes
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)

Probable States -- 3 States -- 24 Electoral Votes
Georgia (15), Mississippi (6), Montana (3)

Tossup States -- 9 States -- 106 Electoral Votes:

Tossup States Leaning Obama -- 3 States -- 56 Electoral Votes
Florida (27), Colorado (9), Ohio (20)

Tossup States Leaning McCain -- 1 State -- 11 Electoral Votes
Indiana (11)

Too Close To Call -- 5 States -- 39 Electoral Votes
Missouri (11), Nevada (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), West Virginia (5)

Oldest Polls:
9/18: Washington DC, Utah

Chris Weigant blogs at: ChrisWeigant.com

Working Hard for Every Vote

In this 6 minute clip, Barack Obama takes the time to answer this man's question on his tax proposal. What I love about this video is that it shows an intelligent, caring, and authentic person. Ask yourself, if John McCain would ever do this.

At Last, A Diagnosis for Me!

My girlfriend, the therapist, will be so happy that they've finally found a diagnosis to fit my behavior over the past few months.  :)

Obsessive Compulsive Election Disorder Takes Its Toll
from The *Huffington* Post by Barbara Dehn

I'm coining a new acronym. You read it here FIRST!

OCED: Obsessive Compulsive Election Disorder.

In this particular psychological response to variables, the person is unable or unwilling to tear themselves away from media coverage of the upcoming election.

Reports are flooding in from every corner of the country, red, blue, purple and green states alike. Ordinary people with no previous history of repetitive behaviors are suddenly checking polling websites every 1/2 hour. The words Zogby, Gallup, Fivethirtyeight, Rasmussen are now sprinkled in to conversations at playgrounds, coffee shops, parties and after the workout at the Y.

Others find themselves unable to relinquish the remote as they leap-frog between CNN, MSNBC, FOX, CBS, PBS & ABC, looking for the pundits, experts and talking heads with the latest updates on undecided voters from battleground states.

The symptoms of an informed electorate.

More informed electorate for sure, and for some, it's extreme, thus the name OCED, Obsessive Compuslive Election Disorder. Here's some signs that you might be afflicted:

* You check and re-check your favorite post more than twice a day hoping for an update
* You have commented on articles and blog posts using a clever pseudonym
* You can't sleep, worried about the how voters in West Virginia are going to decide
* You've watched Tina Fey more this week than in the past few years on 30 Rock
* You find yourself forwarding emails to every casual acquaintance who expresses even a mild like-minded opinion on the issues
* For the first time ever you understand the term Margin of Error
* You bounce between Huffington, National Review, The Atlantic & DrudgeReport

The side effects:

1. Nausea as events beyond your control unfold before your eyes
2. Headache as you try to understand Confidence intervals and Margin of error statistics
3. Upset stomach from too many Advil and Tylenol swallowed for #1 & #2 above
4. Putting off work related projects to check latest polling numbers from Missouri

Treatment:

* Besides Electric Shock Therapy, most people have found that the best thing to do is to shut down the computer and hide the remote.
* Get out of the house and go for a walk.
* Avoid counting and comparing the number of political yard signs.
* Research shows that when people with OCED volunteer for their candidate, get involved and direct that energy outward instead of inward, they sleep better at night without medication or alcohol
* Optimal treatment is, drumroll here , please: Vote

Update on The Great Schlep

Turns out, grandma and grandpa were ALREADY voting Obama.  But hey, it must have been nice to get some homemade matzoh ball soup and noodle kugel.  

South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com

'Great Schlep' organizers happy with turnout to garner votes for Obama among jews

October 15, 2008

A hundred Schleppers converged on South Florida last weekend, only to find their Jewish grandparents already were voting for Barack Obama.

The young urbanites visited their elders as part of "The Great Schlep," a campaign promoted by comedian Sarah Silverman to urge Jewish grandchildren to get their Florida grandparents to vote for the Democrat.

Mik Moore, the Schlep's co-executive director, said organizers were thrilled with the turnout.

Moore, who wore a Great Schlep T-shirt last weekend as he was having brunch at The Bagel Tree west of Boca Raton, said 10 seniors who approached him at the deli were all voting for Obama. Schleppers who organized talks in senior citizen communities also said they had no problem drawing crowds.

Mike Bender, 33, of Los Angeles, who visited his grandparents, Selma, 87, and Kenny Furst, 90, of Tamarac, said 150 people gathered to hear him promote Obama at the Kings Point retirement community. Bender said the Fursts were initially noncommittal about their votes, but have become Obama supporters.

"We've been in ongoing talks since Thanksgiving," Bender said.

Lois K. Solomon

Copyright © 2008, South Florida Sun-Sentinel

McCain-Free White House

Here's a great parody of the anti-drug ads directed at parents. You'll love it!

Maddow Uses the L Word - No, Not That One!

Our girl on MSNBC, Rachel Maddow, uses the L word when she comes right out and called Sarah Palin a LIAR. This piece is very Olbermann-esque, but then again, he's her mentor.

Love Those Anti-Palin Signs

More great anti-Palin signs from a demo in Denver (courtesy of Mayhill Flower's blog, On the Trail, on the Huffington Post)

How Much Will You Save in Taxes under Pres. Obama?

I'm actually amazed that I'd save over $800. Use the Tax Calculator and see what you'd save.

 

 

Obama releases tax cut calculator

via AMERICAblog News| A great nation deserves the truth by Robert Arena on 10/14/08

 You can find the calculator here http://taxcut.barackobama.com/ and embedded (hopefully) below.

For 95% of Americans, their taxes will go down under Obama; if you make over $250,000, you'll pay more. But as Parade points out, if you're really, really, really, rich, John McCain will save you hundreds of thousands of dollars in taxes. It's time Americans got to get their calculators out to see just how much more they'll save in taxes under Obama. Check out the Obama tax calculator site here and share it with your friends.

Good Signs from Early Voters in Key States

I have no idea about the methodology used here, so take this with a grain of salt. But it's all we've got so far and the signs are encouraging.

 

 

Obama Dominating Among Early Voters in Five Swing States

via FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right by noreply@blogger.com (Nate Silver) on 10/15/08

SurveyUSA has a lot of good habits as a pollster, and one of them is breaking out the results of early and absentee voting in states where such things are allowed. So far, SurveyUSA has conducted polling in five states where some form of early voting was underway. In each one, Barack Obama is doing profoundly better among early voters than among the state's electorate as a whole:

...    Poll    % Voted                  Non-Early
State  Date      Early   Early Voters   Likely Voters
====================================================
NM     10/13     10%     Obama +23%     Obama +6%
OH     10/13     12%     Obama +18%     Obama +4%
GA     10/12     18%     Obama +6%      McCain +11%
IA     10/9      14%     Obama +34%     Obama +10%
NC     10/6       5%     Obama +34%     McCain +5%

We should caveat that these are not hard-and-fast numbers. Estimates of early voting results are subject to the same statistical vagaries as any other sort of subgroup analysis, such as response bias and small sample sizes.

Nevertheless, Obama is leading by an average of 23 points among early voters in these five states, states which went to George W. Bush by an average of 6.5 points in 2004.

Is this a typical pattern for a Democrat? Actually, it's not. According to a study by Kate Kenski at the University of Arizona, early voters leaned Republican in both 2000 and 2004; with Bush earning 62.2 percent of their votes against Al Gore, and 60.4 percent against John Kerry. In the past, early voters have also tended to be older than the voting population as a whole and more male than the population as a whole, factors which would seem to cut against Obama or most other Democrats.

Now certainly, early voters tend to be your stauncher partisans rather than your uncommitted voters -- just 1-2 percent of early voters in 2000 and 2004 reported that they would have voted differently if they'd waited until election day. So it's unlikely that John McCain is actually losing all that many persuadable voters to the early voter tallies.

What these results would seem to suggest, however, is that there are fairly massive advantages for the Democrats in enthusiasm and/or turnout operations. They imply that Obama is quite likely to turn out his base in large numbers; the question is whether the Republicans will be able to do the same.

Keep in mind that there are veteran pollsters like Ann Selzer who think that most of her colleagues are vastly understating the degree to which youth and minority turnout is liable to improve in this election; Selzer's polls have been 5-6 points more favorable to Obama than the averages in the states that she's surveyed. So while these early voting numbers could turn out to be something of a curiosity, they could alternatively represent a canary in the coal mine for a coming Democratic turnout wave.