I was just looking at state polls at www.electoral-vote.com to see where things stood with my winning formula that tells us we can ignore OH, VA and FL if we get CO. Actually, I orginally said we'd need not just CO, but NH, MI, MN, NM and WI. At this point, those five states have all been counted as dark blue, safe for Obama (i.e., he's at least 10 points ahead in recent polls). Our only "leaning Obama" state in my formula is Colorado (where he's 6 points ahead), and we still need it.
Here's why. The safe states total 264 electoral votes. Colorado (or any of the 3 battlegrounds: VA, OH, FL) put him over the 270 line. Ironically, Virginia is polling a little better than Colorado. It's at 7 points ahead for Obama. But I'm sticking with Colorado because I think it has a better chance of going dark blue in the end.
One interesting and frightening new development. West Virginia's latest poll is showing McCain pulling ahead by 6 points there (after he was only ahead by 2). The pundits explain that the intensely negative and hateful stuff coming from the McCain/Palin campaign may be taking root in WV. The Obama folks say they're not giving up and will be throwing more money and time into WV in these last 2 weeks. That's fine, as long as they don't neglect Colorado.
Let's keep our eye on the prize and stop worrying about turning all the red states blue. We need 270 to win and that could happen in Colorado (or in Virginia or even Florida, where Obama is polling 4 points up).
No comments:
Post a Comment