New survey shows Prop 8 losing

From Pam's House Blend - Front Page by Pam Spaulding on 10/23/08 Great news on two fronts in the fight to ensure marriage equality is preserved in California.

First, a new statewide survey released by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) with funding from The James Irvine Foundation (PDF) has found that Prop 8 is now losing among likely voters, 52 percent to 44 percent.

The gap between likely voters in favor and opposed to Proposition 8 (44% yes, 52% no) has narrowed since September (41% yes, 55% no) and August (40% yes, 54% no). Compared to last month, more Republicans (70% today, 62% September) would vote yes on the measure, which would eliminate the right for same-sex couples to marry that the state Supreme Court granted in May.

Opposition is 4 points lower among Democrats (67% today, 71% September), but 5 points higher among independents (58% today, 53% September). At least half of men, women, Latinos, and whites oppose Proposition 8. Regionally, majorities of likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area (67%) and Los Angeles (55%) are opposed. But majorities in the Central Valley (54%) and in the "Other Southern California" region that includes Orange, San Diego, Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties (52%) favor the measure.

On the more general question of how they feel about allowing gay and lesbian couples to legally marry in California, likely voters are divided, 47 percent in favor and 49 percent opposed. These attitudes are largely unchanged since 2005. In an indication of how strong voters' motivations are to cast their ballots on this measure, supporters of Proposition 8 are far more likely (69%) than opponents (49%) to say the results are very important.