McCain Has No Clear Path to 270

The failure to see Colorado as pivotal is a blind spot in the McCain campaign.

Electoral Realities

via Pam's House Blend - Front Page by Victor Maldonado on 10/21/08

CNN's John King reports that the McCain campaign is taking a hard look at how it will employ resources in the waning days of the '08 election. McCain, who is battling Obama in a number of states which supported George Bush in 2004 and has already pulled out of Michigan, is considering a pullout from Colorado. If true, this decision makes the Republicans path to 270 electoral votes very difficult.

Under the new calculus, placing Colorado in the Obama column, McCain must first carry every remaining swing state, including: Nevada, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida. If he accomplishes this, he must still either win Pennsylvania or carry both Virginia and New Mexico. Only by running the board on swings states and flipping Obama leaning Pennsylvania (or New Mexico and Virginia) can McCain win on November 4th.

This is a difficult road to travel. Polls show Obama currently has substantial leads in three of the five swing states (Nevada, Ohio and Florida), is tied with McCain in North Carolina and is trailing by one percentage point in Missouri. Furthermore, polls in Pennsylvania have Obama leading 53% to 41%. In Virginia Obama leads 53% to 43%, and in New Mexico polls indicate Obama up 45% to 40%.

The Obama campaign, by comparison has a much easier path to victory and a number of different options to pursue in its quest for the White House. First, Obama needs to keep all of the states currently in his column. If he can do this, all Obama needs is to do is win one of the five remaining swing states. The Democrat has a much easier and much clearer path to victory.

A McCain victory however is still possible. The maverick from Arizona has certainly been written off in the past, and like Lazarus has returned from the dead. There are also a number of intangible factors which may sway the race, including the Bradley Effect. However, McCain's hopes appear to be dimming with each passing day as the likelihood of an Obama victory appears more likely.