Brand Name Recognition

I like the music and the visuals on this one. Watch out for the Obama-MLK graphics and then the very last t-shirt shown. It's funny.

Updated Early Voting Data

Looking good for the 17% who've voted early.

Early Vote Crack

via The Daily Dish By Andrew Sullivan by Andrew Sullivan on 10/31/08

The numbers:

...one in six likely voters has done the deed, and as many say they will between now and Election Day. Their preference: Obama by a substantial margin.

Seventeen percent now say they've already voted, favoring Obama over John McCain by 59-40 percent. An additional 18 percent say they'll do so before Tuesday, for a possible total of 35 percent voting early or by absentee ballot. That would be a record by far, well above its levels in 2004 and 2000 alike, 22 and 15 percent, respectively.

More data on early vote by state can be found here. Early voting in California seems to be helping the Mormon-funded anti-gay Prop 8.

November 5th Song - Been Saving This for Today

Evita! Evita!

I know there are thousands of these home-grown videos on YouTube, but I had to share this one. "Don't speak for me Sarah Palin..."

When Do the Polls Close?

Poll closing times across the US.
Times are all Eastern Standard.
Now you know when to expect results.

Samuel L. Jackson Rocks: But We Always Knew That

My oldest son has always been a big fan of Samuel L. Jackson, so it was with great pride that I sent him this TV ad that Jackson has recorded for the No on 8 Campaign in California.

Here's the Electoral Map I Submitted: 326 for Obama

Here's My Electoral Vote Map Prediction

I entered the Washington Post's electoral map contest and predicted the following:



I gave Obama all the deep blue states and then predicted CO, OH, VA and NC would go to him, but that FL, ND, IN and MO would go to McCain.

This gives Obama a comfortable 312 EVs, 42 more than he needs.

Don't blame latinos and blacks if Prop 8 passes

Alex Blaze of Bilerico Project lays out a cogent, clear argument that bucks the conventional wisdom in the LGBT community that if we lose marriage in California, it will be the fault of African American voters. This piece from Alex is so important and those of us who try to fight racism within our own community should commit it to memory.

Don't blame latinos and blacks if Prop 8 passes

via The Bilerico Project by alex@bilerico.com (Alex Blaze) on 10/30/08

Here's the racial break-down of the latest SUSA poll on Prop 8.

	White	Black	Latino/a	Asian
Yes	48	58	47	42
No	47	38	41	48
Undecided	6	4	12	10
While there is definitely slippage between those categories (bi- and multiracial people, people of various racial backgrounds who get racialized as "latino" in the US and accept or reject that label to varying degrees), it's a rough estimate and it'll have to do if we're going to have this discussion about racial groups and their support for same-sex marriage. What I've been hearing, both from gay people I know and on this site, is an assumption that if Prop 8 passes in California, it's going to be because of racial minorities, which usually means blacks, and then latinos get tacked on to that. Coming from a latino background myself, I can say that the stereotype that all latinos are homophobic is about as true as the stereotype that all white people are homophobic, and the numbers in California support that. Continue reading "Don't blame latinos and blacks if Prop 8 passes"...

In Case You Missed It

Here's the full half-hour Obama video that was aired on network TV tonight.

Almost the Last Geeky Electoral College Report

OK, this is the penultimate (second to last) Electoral College for Geeks report from Chris Weigant and.....IT LOOKS GREAT!

Chris Weigant: Electoral Math -- Obama Has Closed The Deal

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by Chris Weigant on 10/29/08

Welcome to the penultimate Electoral Math column.

OK, I admit, I just like correctly using the word "penultimate." Plus, it's fun to say! Try it!

If you detect a certain giddiness here at Electoral Math Central, it is due to the fact that the election is actually drawing nigh, after a seemingly eternal campaign season. It's been a long, long road to where we find ourselves, and we're all feeling the strain. But fear not! Election Day is just around the corner, and just about everything seems to be breaking Obama's way.

"What's that?" you say, "the national polls are close -- I know this because the media told me so!" Well, all I can say is that's what you get for hanging around such disreputable characters in the first place.

(Ahem.)

Seriously, though, I remind everyone once again that we don't elect our president that way. If we did, we'd be at the end of Al Gore's second term right now.

Need further reassurance? Take a look at where Kerry was on this day in 2004. Go ahead, take a look. Then take a deep breath, and take a look at where we are today. Feel better now?

OK, now that we've all calmed down, let's take a look at the week. Just about the only bad news was Missouri moving to "tied" this week, when it had been (barely) in Obama's column. Just about everything else was either neutral, or good news for Democrats. Florida did move to being tied for a single day, but then it moved right back to showing a slim lead for Obama, so no harm, no foul there. Ohio, Nevada, and New Hampshire all firmed up for Obama this week. New Hampshire and Nevada aren't all that big, but Ohio is a juicy 20 electoral votes, so this is good news indeed.

In the meantime, McCain continues to watch his support fall off a cliff. Mississippi, Arizona, Montana, and Georgia all weakened considerably this week for McCain. And Indiana went back to leaning towards Obama from leaning towards McCain. The trendlines for McCain, in other words, are not good. Not good indeed when you consider we only have six days left before the election, and Obama is about to talk to the nation for an entire half-hour in prime time tonight. Not a very happy position for McCain to be in, to put it mildly.

Having said all that, let's go to the charts and take a look at where we truly stand. First up, the Electoral College totals. [Click on any of these charts to see a larger image. Compare with last week's column to see the graphs' movement in the past week.]

[Obama's percentage starts from the bottom (blue) and McCain's starts from the top (red), and winning means getting your line over (or under, for McCain) the 50% mark. Tied states are in white.]

The graph quivered a bit from last week, but then settled down once again. Net result: Obama didn't move, and McCain lost ground (to tied states). Obama started off the week with a serious dip, since he lost Florida to "tied," and since Florida has an impressive 27 electoral votes (EV). But then the next day, Obama gained it back, as well as Indiana's 11 EV. This is the first time Obama has been up in Indiana since mid-August, so it is good news indeed. One poll showed him at fairly strong support, but a second poll showed the race much closer, while still leaning slightly to Obama.

McCain's bad news wasn't confined to Indiana, though, as he also lost Montana to a tie on the same day, which dropped his numbers by 14 EV overall for the week. Obama eventually lost Missouri, which is now tied. This meant Obama finished up the week with the same number of electoral votes that he started with -- 364 EV (after setting a new record high of 375 EV, then falling back). McCain, however, didn't regain his loss, so he finished the week with 157 EV, down 14 EV from last week.

Obama now has the same 67.7% of the total electoral votes that he started the week off with, while McCain has set a new low, slipping below 30% for the first time, and ending the week with a dismal 29.2%.

Breaking the numbers down and drilling into the data just confirms the continuing movement towards Obama. First, let's look at John McCain.

[Definition of terms: Strong means 10% or better in the polls, Weak means 5% or better, and Barely is under five percent.]

John McCain continues to lose support, as what were his Strong states a few weeks ago turn Weak... and then Barely... and then drift off into Obama's column. Starting with Strong, John McCain was holding his numbers until suddenly he lost Arizona -- his home state -- down to Barely. It moved back up to Weak the next day, but still hasn't recovered back to being Strong for McCain again yet. Then just today, Mississippi weakened as well, leaving the Strong category for Weak. For the week, McCain is down 16 EV for a total of 118 EV in Strong. One week out from the election, that graph line is moving in entirely the wrong direction for McCain.

The Weak McCain states look, at first glance, like they haven't moved. But upon closer scrutiny, what happened was Georgia moved out of this column to Barely, and Arizona and Mississippi moved into it from Strong. Meaning that although McCain finishes up the week with a net gain of one electoral vote here (for a total of 24 EV), this isn't good news, as states migrate in Obama's direction. Georgia has 15 EV, so this was a big loss for McCain.

Likewise, McCain's Barely numbers also don't seem so bad if you just look at the totals. But what really happened isn't good news for the McCain camp at all. First, Montana went to being a tie, while Indiana migrated over to Obama's column. This left McCain with zero Barely states for a day. The next day, Georgia moved into Barely from Weak, giving McCain at least something in this column. But, again, the state is moving in the wrong direction. Arizona moved into Barely, but just for a day until it moved up to Weak, which is about the only good news this week for McCain -- his home state didn't change from Strong to Barely, it merely changed from Strong to Weak. And that's the good news.

The bad news is evident from a quick look at that chart. McCain keeps sinking lower and lower, with no end to the bleeding in sight. One week out, I remind you. The metric I watch most closely is Strong Plus Weak, and McCain lost fifteen electoral votes from last week (Georgia). He finishes the week with his Strong Plus Weak line at only 142 EV.

Because that was depressing, let's lighten things up a bit by taking a quick peek at Obama's chart.

Barack Obama's chart looks a bit better, shall we say. His Strong numbers stayed rock-like in their firmness during the past week. He lost not a single state, and just for fun at the end of the week regained New Hampshire. This left him at his all-time high water mark of 264 EV. That is just six votes short of a winning number, in states that are polling ten percent or better for Obama. It could be a very short Election Night indeed.

Obama started the week with 26 EV in his Weak column, and improved right away by gaining Ohio and Indiana (both substantial states, EV-wise). Three days later, he lost Indiana down to Barely, though, setting him back a bit. But he finished the week in good shape here, even though New Hampshire moved up to Strong, by adding Nevada to Weak from Barely -- good news indeed, if it holds. Obama closed the week out with 47 EV in his Weak column, a net gain of 21 EV from last week.

Obama's Barely numbers jumped around considerably this week, starting with Florida moving to tied for a day, then moving back to Barely Obama (because Florida has 27 EV, this caused quite a dip in the graph). The same day it moved back, Ohio moved from Barely to Weak, which is more good news. Indiana, after one outlier poll that showed it as Weak Obama, ended the week in Barely Obama. It's worth noting that this state started the week as Barely McCain, meaning it is still a net pickup. About the only bad news for Obama this week was the movement of Missouri from Barely Obama to being tied, which brought his overall numbers down a bit after setting an all-time high of 375 EV -- over 100 EV more than he needs to win. And at the very end of the week, Nevada moved up to Weak from Barely, meaning Obama finished up with 53 EV for the week in his Barely column, down 25 EV from last week.

In the crucial Strong Plus Weak area, Obama also hit an all-time high early in the week of 317 EV. Yes, you read that right, and now (Biden-like) I will repeat it -- three hundred and seventeen electoral votes. It then fell to 306 EV, but a last-minute uptick finished the week off for Obama at 311 EV for Strong Plus Weak -- a pickup of 25 EV over last week.

It's a good thing the election is next week, or I would have to recalibrate the axis on this graph as Obama's numbers continue to climb. When I started, I thought 400 would be enough...

(Ahem.)

Sam's Numbers

To contain my exuberance, I always rely on the analysis of Sam Minter and his website abulsme.com. His chart averages the last five state polls, while I just take the most recent data from electoral-vote.com, so his data is usually more stable than mine.

His chart combines my three charts above into one. Obama starts from the top, McCain starts from the bottom, and wherever the double baby-blue/pink line currently is determines who is ahead, measured from the centerline.

Uh oh -- Sam's commentary today is titled "Very Very Bad Polling Day for McCain." Maybe he's not going to contain my exuberance... let's see what he has to say...

New Summary:

McCain Best Case -- Obama 311, McCain 227
Obama Best Case -- Obama 406, McCain 132
If everybody gets their leans -- 375 Obama, 163 McCain

This is frankly just stunning. Lets look at this.

If John McCain wins every single swing state... that is, every state he is ahead in, plus every state Obama is ahead in by less than 5%... then he still loses by 84 electoral votes.

If everybody just gets every state they are currently ahead in, then Obama gets 375 electoral votes, which is one common definition of a landslide.

If Obama actually wins all of the states McCain is ahead by less than 5% in as well, he will top 400 electoral votes.

. . .

I'll stick with my methods and categories though, and say that at the moment McCain has no path to victory. If he manages to move a bunch of states before election day, that may change. But so far, there does not seem to be any trend in his direction. In fact, the trend toward Obama is continuing. States that seemed to be absolutely impossible for Obama are now in play. It really does seem that we now are just debating just how massive Obama's win will be. McCain winning is not a possibility that is seriously in play at the moment.

There is only one word for where we are now: Wow.

Looks like this exuberance stuff is contagious!

My Picks

There was a good deal of movement in my picks this week, almost all of it towards Obama. States that Democrats usually don't even dare to dream about winning are continuing to soften for McCain, enough to the point where an entirely new electoral map with entirely new "conventional wisdom" may be staring us in the face come this time next week.

So, without further ado, here are my penultimate picks. As always, the categories used are: Likely Obama (broken down to Safe Obama and Probable Obama); Likely McCain (Safe/Probable); and Tossup (broken down to Lean Obama, Lean McCain, and Too Close To Call). And at the very end is a section with all the full data for people who, as I read in somebody's blog today (I will add a credit if I come across it again, as it's a funny line and deserves it) -- "FiveThirtyEight isn't a website, it's the number of times you've visited it this month."

Likely States -- Obama

Safe Obama (23 states, 273 EV) -- CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, HI, IA, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI.

New Hampshire had one outlier poll a while back, and has since recovered... no matter what the media says about it. Colorado has steadily improved its Obama support, and can now be considered Safe as well. The addition of New Hampshire and Colorado in the Safe Obama category (and the loss of no states here) pushes him over the top just among his safest states. This is the first time this has happened, and should calm a few frayed Democratic nerves heading into the home stretch.

Probable Obama (2 states, 33 EV) -- OH, VA.

Lots of movement here this week. Colorado and New Hampshire moved up to Safe, and Ohio moves up from Lean Obama. This may be overconfidence in the case of Ohio, but it's looking less and less likely McCain could win here, unless there is some massive vote fraud which makes it happen (knock wood). Obama finishes the week with two states here, Ohio and Virginia, both of which could be the state that puts Obama over the top on Election Night.

Adding together all the Likely states for Obama gives a total of 25 states, and a whopping 306 electoral votes.

Likely States -- McCain

Safe McCain (14 states, 118 EV) -- AK, AL, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY.

The bad news for John McCain this week starts in his Safe category. McCain loses two states this week, Arizona and Mississippi, down to Probable McCain. Both states had some weak polls for McCain late in the week, but I do caution that they may just be outlier polling. McCain finishes the week with only 14 states and a measly 118 electoral votes in his Safe column -- down 16 EV from last week.

Probable McCain (4 states, 24 EV) -- AZ, MS, SD, WV.

Lots of activity in Probable McCain this week, with the addition of two states (AZ, MS) moving down from Safe McCain, the loss of Georgia down to Lean McCain, and -- his only good news -- the addition of West Virginia up from Lean McCain. He finishes the week with four states and 24 EV in this category -- up two states and six electoral votes from last week.

Total Likely McCain for the week is only 18 states (the same as last week), but since they're different states, McCain loses 10 EV for a miserly total of only 142 EV.

Tossup States

Lean Obama (2 states, 32 EV) -- FL, NV.

Ohio moved up to Probable Obama from here this week, but Florida remains shaky for Obama, so it stays as merely a Lean Obama state for now. Nevada moves up from Too Close To Call, and I even halfway considered moving Nevada all the way up to Probable Obama as well, since the numbers there are pretty close to Ohio's. But Ohio has shown deeper support for Obama for a longer period of time, so I can realistically only move Nevada to Lean Obama for now. Obama ends the week with two states here, for a total of 32 EV.

Lean McCain (1 state, 15 EV) -- GA.

McCain lost all three states he had in his Lean category from last week. Montana and Indiana moved down to Too Close To Call, and West Virginia (again, McCain's only good news this week) moved up to Probable McCain. But Georgia moved down from Probable McCain to just Lean McCain, due to a serious weakening in the polls in the state.

Too Close To Call (5 states, 43 EV) -- IN, MO, MT, NC, ND.

Some movement here, in the most volatile category. Nevada moved up to Lean Obama, and Indiana and Montana moved down here from Lean McCain. So we finish off the week with five states too close to make a prediction, none of them big enough to swing the entire race to McCain. How Obama does here is likely just going to be a question of how much icing his cake is going to have.

[Program Note: Join us here next Tuesday -- Election Day -- for my final (ultimate?) Electoral Math column, which will have my final election picks (it'll come out before the polls close, I promise). There will be no "Too Close To Call," no undecideds, as I will call every state the way I think it'll go. And I invite everyone else to share their picks in the comments, while we're all waiting for the returns to come in. Don't miss it!]

[Electoral Vote Data:]

Previous electoral math columns:

[6/30/08], [7/21/08], [8/6/08], [8/20/08], [9/17/08], [9/24/08], [10/1/08], [10/8/08], [10/15/08], and [10/22/08].

Barack Obama Likely Easy Wins -- 25 States -- 306 Electoral Votes:

Safe States -- 23 States -- 273 Electoral Votes
California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington, D.C. (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10)

Probable States -- 2 States -- 33 Electoral Votes
Ohio (20), Virginia (13)

John McCain Likely Easy Wins -- 18 States -- 142 Electoral Votes:

Safe States -- 14 States -- 118 Electoral Votes
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)

Probable States -- 4 States -- 24 Electoral Votes
Arizona (10), Mississippi (6), South Dakota (3), West Virginia (5)

Tossup States -- 8 States -- 90 Electoral Votes:

Tossup States Leaning Obama -- 2 States -- 32 Electoral Votes
Florida (27), Nevada (5)

Tossup States Leaning McCain -- 1 State -- 15 Electoral Votes
Georgia (15)

Too Close To Call -- 5 States -- 43 Electoral Votes
Indiana (11), Missouri (11), Montana (3), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3)

Oldest data -- no polls in October yet:

9/18: Utah, Washington, D.C.
9/20: Idaho
9/25: Hawaii, Maryland

The Endpoint is Near

Many of us are suffering from this disorder. But luckily, unlike other disorders, it has an actual endpoint. So take heart, the endpoint is near. Only 6 more days of this.

Election Anxiety: Don't Worry, The End Is Near

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by The Huffington Post News Editors on 10/29/08

Americans are in the grip of a monster case of Pre-Election Anxiety Disorder. No one is talking about voter apathy anymore, because the opposite is more likely the case. People care too much. They're losing sleep. They're having bad dreams about unfavorable tracking polls.

PEAD worsens as Election Day approaches and it's a 50-50 country and there's a war going on and people are dying and the talking heads are howling and the polls come firing at your head like fastballs. It's too close to call, too close, too close, we know the whole thing could pivot with the slightest breeze, that nothing is too trivial now, that even the slightest verbal gaffe by a candidate or his wife or one of the daughters could have a butterfly effect on world history.

Early Voting Numbers

Looks like the early voting is going very well for Obama.

Early Voting Numbers

via The Daily Dish By Andrew Sullivan by Andrew Sullivan on 10/28/08

9 percent of voters have already cast ballots:

Their preference: Barack Obama over John McCain, by 60-39 percent.

That leaves 91 percent yet to vote, but more are coming. A total of 34 percent of likely voters intend to vote early, including those who've already done so and those who say they will in the next week. This overall early voting group favors Obama over McCain by 59-39 percent, essentially the same as it is among those who've gotten it done already.

The Closer

A powerful speech by Obama today in Canton, Ohio. He's closing the deal. 8 days.

The Cutest Young Journalist In the US

This adorable budding TV reporter has really got it goin' on. Here's his report on a speech given by Joe Biden and his actual interview with the VP candidate. I think you'll love him.

So Much for the (Older) Jewish Vote Being in Play

New Gallup poll shows 75% of U.S. Jews plan to vote Obama

By Haaretz Service

A new poll released by the Gallup organization on Thursday shows Jewish voters favor Barack Obama over John McCain by more than 3 to 1, with 74% saying they will vote for Obama over 22% for McCain.

The poll, which has interviewed over 650 Jewish registered voters each month since June, shows American Jews growing increasingly comfortable with Obama since July, when the Illinois Senator tied up the Democratic Party nomination. The poll shows support for McCain among Jews stood at a high of 34% in June, before beginning its downward turn in July after Obama's nomination.

The highest level of support for Obama according to the poll is among Jews over the age of 55, 74% of which have said they're voting for Obama over 67% of Jews 18 to 34. The Gallup organization says the disparity could be based on a greater inclination among Jews 18 to 34 to call themselves Conservative, but says a similar inclination isn't apparent among Jews aged 35 to 54, 68% of which polled by Gallup have said they're voting Obama.

The poll's findings show that in spite of a certain measure of trepidation among some Jewish voters towards Obama early in his campaign, he is set to receive the same percentage of the Jewish vote (74%) as John Kerry in 2004, and only slightly less than the 80% of the Jewish vote that Al Gore received in 2000 when he had a Jewish running mate in Joe Lieberman.

Earlier in October, a poll commissioned by researchers at New York University revealed that American Jews favor Obama over McCain by a 67 - 33 percent margin.

The survey, which sampled the opinions of over 3,000 respondents - half of them being Jewish - also found that Jews as an ethnic group will support Obama by almost 30 percent more than other white, non-Hispanic voters.

The poll sought to gauge the importance Jewish voters attach to Israel as a consideration in whom they would vote for, with some surprising results. Of all the Jews surveyed who said that Israel is of "high" importance, 63 percent said they would vote for Obama. In contrast, only 42 percent of Jews who said Israel has "very high" importance said they planned to vote for Obama.

Not surprisingly, the Jewish vote swings heavily in McCain's favor among the Orthodox. According to the survey, the Arizona senator can count on support from 75 percent of Orthodox Jewish voters.

Newsweek Poll: Obama Maintains Double-Digit Lead

OK, 10 more days to go. Why does it still feel like SUCH a long time? Maybe 'cause this has been a long time comin'.

Newsweek Poll: Obama Maintains Double-Digit Lead

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by The Huffington Post News Editors on 10/25/08

With less than two weeks left in the presidential contest, Barack Obama continues to hold a commanding double-digit lead over John McCain according to the latest NEWSWEEK Poll. Among registered voters nationwide, Obama now leads McCain by 13 points, 53 percent to 40 percent. Among likely voters, Obama's lead is similarly strong, 53 percent to 41 percent.

Obama's lead in the NEWSWEEK Poll is consistent with other recent national polls, including soundings taken by CBS News and The New York Times, The Washington Post and ABC News, NBC News and The Wall Street Journal and by Pew Research, all of which measured Obama's lead over McCain as somewhere between 10 and 14 points. In the NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama's lead stayed virtually unchanged from two weeks ago, when he led McCain 52 to 41 among registered voters.

Success Has Many Parents But Failure is an Orphan

Here's a great example of the above saying as the McCain/Palin campaign dissembles.

 

McCain Faces Internal "Palin Insurgency"

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by The Huffington Post News Editors on 10/25/08

Politico's Ben Smith reports on the internal tensions that are roiling the McCain campaign, with many Palin allies voicing their unhappiness at how the campaign has been run. According to Smith, there are now "stirrings of a Palin insurgency." Some of the highlights:

Four Republicans close to Palin said she has decided increasingly to disregard the advice of the former Bush aides tasked to handle her, creating occasionally tense situations as she travels the country with them. Those Palin supporters, inside the campaign and out, said Palin blames her handlers for a botched rollout and a tarnished public image -- even as others in McCain's camp blame the pick of the relatively inexperienced Alaska governor, and her public performance, for McCain's decline.

"She's lost confidence in most of the people on the plane," said a senior Republican who speaks to Palin, referring to her campaign jet. He said Palin had begun to "go rogue" in some of her public pronouncements and decisions.[...]

Anger among Republicans who see Palin as a star and as a potential future leader has boiled over because, they say, they see other senior McCain aides preparing to blame her in the event he is defeated.

"These people are going to try and shred her after the campaign to divert blame from themselves," said a McCain insider, referring to McCain's chief strategist, Steve Schmidt, and to Nicolle Wallace, a former Bush aide who has taken a lead role in Palin's campaign.
[...]

"A number of Governor Palin's staff have not had her best interests at heart and they have not had the campaign's best interests at heart," fumed the McCain insider, noting that Wallace left an executive job at CBS to join the campaign."

Read the full article.

Palin's favorability ratings have taken a hit recently, and the Washington Post reported Saturday that its latest poll shows the majority of Americans now have a negative impression of Palin.

October Surprise Averted

When I read about this yesterday, it send shivers down my spine at the thought of the right making a huge issue out of this incident. Now it's completely neutralized and even blown back at them by the whole thing being a hoax. When is this kind of insanity going to end?

I lived in Boston during the whole Charles Stuart case where an insane white man killed his pregnant wife (on the way home from their childbirth class!) in an African American neighborhood near the hospital so that he could accuse a black man of committing the crime.  The police went into overdrive--arresting black guys right and left, and even finding one they thought for sure had committed the murder.  Then, of course, we find out that it was the white husband who did the deed, setting up an entire African American community as a scapegoat.

Stuart himself committed suicide by jumping off the Mystic River Bridge (yes, the same Mystic River as in the movie of the same name) and the wife's family, a really wonderful group of people, set up a scholarship fund for children living in the neighborhood (Mission Hill) where the crime had been committed.

Maybe Ashley Todd's family should do the same for the people in the neighborhood where their daughter did so much damage?

HOAX: McCain volunteer admits "Obama supporter mutilated me" story was a lie

via AMERICAblog News| A great nation deserves the truth by John Aravosis (DC) on 10/24/08

This photo is of a hoax. A McCain staffer who thought it might be cute to invent her own hate crime and blame it on black men in general and Barack Obama in particular. What a freaking witch. Of course, she's such an idiot that she claimed the mean black man carved a "B" for "Barack" on her face after he found out she worked for McCain - except the B was carved backwards, like it would be if you carved it in your own face while looking in a mirror. What a hateful, stupid woman.




From KDKA:

Police sources tell KDKA that a campaign worker has now confessed to making up a story that a mugger attacked her and cut the letter "B" in her face after seeing her McCain bumper sticker.

Ashley Todd, 20, of Texas, initially told police that she was robbed at an ATM in Bloomfield and that the suspect became enraged and started beating her after seeing her GOP sticker on her car.

Police investigating the alleged attack, however, began to notice some inconsistencies in her story and administered a polygraph test.

Authorities, however, declined to release the results of that test.

Investigators did say that they received photos from the ATM machine and "the photographs were verified as not being the victim making the transaction."

This afternoon, a Pittsburgh police commander told KDKA Investigator Marty Griffin that Todd confessed to making up the story.

The commander added that Todd will face charges; but police have not commented on what those charges will be.

Obama in a Nutshell

I just saw this quote on my daily Beliefnet email (Jewish version) and had to post it here because to me it so epitomizes how Barack Obama has run his campaign:

The purely righteous do not complain about evil, rather they add justice. They do not complain about heresy, rather they add faith. They do not complain about ignorance, rather they add wisdom.


- Rav Abraham Isaac Kook

You've Got to Be Carefully Taught: "Hit a Jew Day" At St. Louis School

Now here's a school and a community in desperate need of a lot of education about anti-Semitism. Where do you imagine these 12 year olds learned that it's OK to have a "Hit a Jew Day"?

"Hit a Jew Day" At St. Louis School: Students Face Punishment

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by The Huffington Post News Editors on 10/24/08

ST. LOUIS — At least four students from a suburban St. Louis middle school face punishment for allegedly hitting Jewish classmates during what they called "Hit a Jew Day."

The incident happened last week at Parkway West Middle School in Chesterfield.

District officials said Thursday they believe that fewer than 10 children of the district's 35 Jewish students were struck.

District spokesman Paul Tandy said that in most cases, the students were hit on the back of their shoulders but one student was slapped in the face.

It began with an unofficial "Spirit Week" among sixth-graders that started harmlessly enough with a "Hug a Friend Day." Then there was "High Five Day."

Soon, though, the days moved from friendly to silly. Next there was "Hit a Tall Person Day" and, finally, "Hit a Jew Day."

District officials believe a handful of children were directly involved. Those who actually struck classmates could face suspension and required counseling, Tandy said. Others who weren't directly involved but taunted Jewish students or egged on classmates could face lesser penalties.

"There is a mix of sadness and outrage," Tandy said. "The concern is a lot of kids knew about it and they didn't take action or say anything."

Karen Aroesty, St. Louis regional director of the Anti-Defamation League, said this was more than a case of bullying. Officials from the group will meet Friday with district leaders to discuss the matter.

___

On the Net:

Anti-Defamation League: http://regions.adl.org/missouri/

Parkway West Middle School: http://www.pkwy.k12.mo.us/westmiddle/index.cfm

The "Straight Log Cabin Boy" Endorses Obama

Bill Weld is the honorary, straight Log Cabin Republican - the only one of them who's endorsing Obama. As a former Massachusetts resident who lived there throughout Weld's time in office, I just had to post this.

Former Mass. GOP Gov. Weld Endorses Obama

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by The Huffington Post News Editors on 10/24/08

Former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld, a Republican, is endorsing Democrat Barack Obama for president, citing the senator's steady leadership, good judgment and ability to unify Democrats, Republicans and independents.

"Senator Obama is a once-in-a-lifetime candidate who will transform our politics and restore America's standing in the world," Weld said in a statement released Friday. "We need a president who will lead based on our common values and Senator Obama demonstrates an ability to unite and inspire.

Talkin' 'Bout My Generation

You know you love that adorable red head, Ron Howard. Whether you remember him as Opie or Richie Cunningham, he was the epitome of the cute, American kid. And now here he is in a reprise of both roles, with his pals Andy and Fonzie, to ask you to support Barack Obama. This is nostalgic fun that's really about the future.

The Latest Tina Fey as Sarah Palin video

The gang's all here: Palin, McCain and Bush. Enjoy

VOTE BARACK!!

Kudos for my best pal, Cheryl, for forwarding me this great rap video (I know, I know, white people who aren't Eminem rapping; but they mean well) reminding everyone to vote Obama. I loved it and you will too.

More than a Measly Tip: Delivery Men Get Their Back Wages

As typical Manhattanites, Jen and I order in a lot and we tip the guys who tromp up 3 flights of stairs well, but our measly few dollars doesn't begin to compensate for the horrible wages and working conditions of these folks, many of whom are undocumented immigrants.  Finally, relief is on its way.  Kudos to the activists and lawyers who made this so, and for the brave delivery men who stood up for themselves.

From the NY Times.


October 22, 2008
For $2-an-Hour Restaurant Deliverymen, a $4.6 Million Judgment

By STEVEN GREENHOUSE
A federal judge has awarded $4.6 million in back pay and damages to 36 delivery workers at two Saigon Grill restaurants in Manhattan, finding blatant and systematic violations of minimum-wage and overtime laws.

In a decision dated Monday and released on Tuesday, Magistrate Judge Michael H. Dolinger of United States District Court in Manhattan found violations of federal and state wage laws in awarding up to $328,000 to some of the deliverymen. On issue after issue, Judge Dolinger ruled against Saigon Grill and its owners, Simon and Michelle Nget, saying they paid $520 a month to many deliverymen who worked more than 260 hours each month. This meant their pay came to less than $2 an hour, far less than the federal and state minimum wage.

“I’m very, very happy about this decision,” one deliveryman, Yu Guan Ke, said in a telephone interview. He said he would use the money to help buy health insurance for his family. “It was worth the fight because we were treated badly for so long,” he added. “I never imagined we would receive so much money.” The restaurants are on Amsterdam Avenue at 90th Street and University Place at 12th Street. But the case also involved deliveries made for a Saigon Grill on Second Avenue at 88th Street that closed in July 2006.

The deliverymen, all immigrants from Fujian Province in China, testified that they were required to work 11 to 13 hours a day, usually six days a week. But their employers testified that the deliverymen had to work only at peak delivery times: 11:30 a.m. to 2:30 p.m., and 5:30 to 9:30 p.m.

Responding to the owners’ assertions, Judge Dolinger wrote, “This testimony is manifestly false.” He pointed to a work schedule the plaintiffs made available showing that the deliverymen were assigned to work far more hours than the owners claimed.

On Tuesday, a receptionist for S. Michael Weisberg, the lawyer for Saigon Grill and its owners, said, “He has no comment at this time.”

Judge Dolinger found that the company had often illegally deducted pay — from $20 to $200 — when deliverymen committed infractions like letting the restaurant door slam on their way out or failing to log in a delivery. The case covered wage violations from 1999 to 2007.

The judge concluded that Saigon Grill should pay not just back wages but also damages because the owners, he said, had so blithely ignored the law.

“At a minimum, Simon Nget and Michelle Nget showed no regard whatsoever for legal requirements in connection with their wage policies,” Judge Dolinger wrote.

He also found that the company had illegally retaliated against 23 delivery workers by firing them when they notified their employers of their intention to file a wage complaint. But the judge has not yet decided on a judgment on that issue.

Judge Dolinger also ruled that the company had improperly made the deliverymen buy and maintain the bicycles and motorbikes they used to make deliveries, concluding that Saigon Grill should have paid for those as required tools of the trade.

Kenneth Kimerling, legal director for the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund, said, “This is a tremendous victory, one that should warn every employer in this city that violations of the wage-and-hour law can lead to large amounts awarded against them.”

The fund represented the deliverymen along with the law firm of Davis Polk & Wardwell, working pro bono.

The restaurant could in theory pay the workers a special tip wage, several dollars an hour lower than the state minimum wage, now $7.15 an hour. But the judge ruled that Saigon Grill was required to pay the full minimum wage in this case because the owners had not satisfied a requirement for paying the lower tip wage: explaining to the workers that they planned to do so.

Josephine Lee, an organizer with Justice Will Be Served, an advocacy group for immigrant workers, said that as a result of the Saigon Grill case, “many restaurants have already started to pay their deliverymen much better.”

Last February, a judge with the National Labor Relations Board ruled that Saigon Grill had illegally fired 28 deliverymen 11 months earlier and should reinstate them. That judge found that the firings were in retaliation for the workers’ plans to file the wage lawsuit.

Ms. Lee said seven of the workers have been reinstated thus far.

So Much for the Race Tightening

 

Obama Gets Bounce From Powell Endorsement

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by The Huffington Post News Editors on 10/22/08

Barack Obama is up 11 points on John McCain among likely voters in the new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll, 54 to 43 percent. Though little changed from yesterday, Obama's national lead is now his biggest of the campaign in Post-ABC polling.

Former secretary of state Colin Powell's endorsement provides a new boost for Obama, who has made significant progress with voters as a leader in international affairs. But Obama also continues to be lifted by more fundamental advantages, including a 2 to 1 advantage on "helping the middle-class."

New survey shows Prop 8 losing

From Pam's House Blend - Front Page by Pam Spaulding on 10/23/08 Great news on two fronts in the fight to ensure marriage equality is preserved in California.

First, a new statewide survey released by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) with funding from The James Irvine Foundation (PDF) has found that Prop 8 is now losing among likely voters, 52 percent to 44 percent.

The gap between likely voters in favor and opposed to Proposition 8 (44% yes, 52% no) has narrowed since September (41% yes, 55% no) and August (40% yes, 54% no). Compared to last month, more Republicans (70% today, 62% September) would vote yes on the measure, which would eliminate the right for same-sex couples to marry that the state Supreme Court granted in May.

Opposition is 4 points lower among Democrats (67% today, 71% September), but 5 points higher among independents (58% today, 53% September). At least half of men, women, Latinos, and whites oppose Proposition 8. Regionally, majorities of likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area (67%) and Los Angeles (55%) are opposed. But majorities in the Central Valley (54%) and in the "Other Southern California" region that includes Orange, San Diego, Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties (52%) favor the measure.

On the more general question of how they feel about allowing gay and lesbian couples to legally marry in California, likely voters are divided, 47 percent in favor and 49 percent opposed. These attitudes are largely unchanged since 2005. In an indication of how strong voters' motivations are to cast their ballots on this measure, supporters of Proposition 8 are far more likely (69%) than opponents (49%) to say the results are very important.

This Weeks's Electoral College Geek Column

OK, here's Chris Weigant's weekly analysis of the Electoral College. Still looking good for my formula to put Obama over the top.

Chris Weigant: Electoral Math -- Obama Holds His Lead

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by Chris Weigant on 10/22/08

It's quiet out there... too quiet.

Well, not really, but I always wanted to start a column with that line. The news this week is that there's not much news. The state-by-state polls have been remarkably stable for how close we are to Election Day. Some fringe states have shifted slightly for both candidates, but most states appear to be more and more "locked in" at this point.

Which reminds me, what the heck is John McCain doing in Pennsylvania? He must be counting on one whopping big Bradley Effect there, because almost every poll I've seen says he doesn't stand a chance in the Keystone State.

What it may be is that McCain could be pinning his hopes for the entire race on Pennsylvania. It has an impressive 21 electoral votes, and it is looking more and more unlikely that McCain has any way of putting together a 270-vote win. So maybe their electoral math has come down to: if we lose Pennsylvania, we lose the race.

That would be great news for Obama, if it were true. The list of states McCain is rumored to be pulling out of continues to grow (Maine, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado), meaning McCain's got fewer and fewer chances remaining, and possibly no chance at all without Pennsylvania.

More and more, it is looking like Virginia will be the state that decides Election Night in Obama's favor, and (hopefully) very early in the evening. Sure, it could be Florida or Ohio, but my guess is that the vote-counting is going to take a while in both of them, while Virginia will be a big enough Obama victory that the networks will call it early, just from exit polling.

I could be wrong, but that's my educated guess at this point.

But enough rampant speculation, let's get on to the charts and numbers and stuff. First up, the Electoral College totals. [Click on any of these charts to see a larger image. Compare with last week's column to see the graphs' movement in the past week.]

[Obama's percentage starts from the bottom (blue) and McCain's starts from the top (red), and winning means getting your line over (or under, for McCain) the 50% mark. Tied states are in white.]

As I said, remarkably stable. Obama lost a little bit, then gained it back. McCain lost a little bit, and didn't gain it back.

The week started with West Virginia flipping to McCain (and then, just today, firming up for him significantly). But at the same time, North Carolina flipped from McCain to being tied. Three days later, it flipped over to Obama's column. But it truly could go either way, so while it's in Obama's column this week it could just as easily go back.

Case in point: North Dakota. After just five days in Obama's column, it flipped back to being tied this week. And still could go either way.

John McCain is now at the lowest point he's hit during the entire campaign. And Obama has set a new record high. McCain has just 171 electoral votes (EV), or 31.8%. Obama, meanwhile, has an astonishing 364 EV, for a total of 67.7%. In other words, Obama is now doing better than two-thirds, and McCain has slipped below one-third of the total votes.

This is a very nice place for Obama to be, with less than two weeks to go.

Let's look at each candidate's relative support within their numbers, starting as always with John McCain.

[Definition of terms: Strong means 10% or better in the polls, Weak means 5% or better, and Barely is under five percent.]

Starting with McCain's Strong numbers, he gained one state early in the week (Mississippi) but then lost one later on (South Dakota). This leaves him with a modest gain of three electoral votes here, up to a total of 134 EV.

McCain's Weak numbers also moved a bit, but not by much. He lost Mississippi upwards to Safe, and then he lost Montana downwards to Barely. Just today, he made some ground back here by moving West Virginia up from Barely, leaving him with a net loss of only one electoral vote this week, down to 23 EV total.

McCain's Barely numbers also quivered a bit this week. He started the week off by grabbing West Virginia from Obama's column, but unfortunately on the same day North Carolina moved to being tied (and later moved into Obama's column). And West Virginia later moved up to Weak for McCain, which was good news for him but reduced his numbers here. Conversely, his Barely number bumped up with the addition of Montana, but this isn't good news at all since it is moving downwards from Weak McCain. Overall, McCain suffered a net loss of 12 EV in the Barely column this week, finishing up with a total of 14 EV.

The metric I trust more than any other to show true support is Strong plus Weak. Adding these together didn't show much movement at all this week for McCain. The line went down a bit, then recovered a bit. McCain ends up the week with a net gain of only two electoral votes, for a total of 157 EV. While the line is moving upwards, it is just not moving upwards fast enough to give even the staunchest McCain supporter much hope.

Speaking of hope, let's turn to Obama's numbers.

Obama gained three states in his Strong category, and then lost one at the very end. He started the week off by firming up New Mexico, followed by firming up Maine and Minnesota, and then right at the end fell back a bit by losing New Hampshire down to Weak.

At his peak, he hit the highest number he has ever hit in this category -- 264 EV. Since New Hampshire slid back, he's still at a comfortable 260 EV, up 15 EV from last week. Will 264 EV wind up being the best he does in this category? I wonder, but I'm still holding out hope for New Hampshire to come back, and there is a very real possibility of adding either Colorado or Virginia (or both!) as well, which means Obama could still reach a number in his Strong category alone which would be enough to win the entire race -- a stunning accomplishment.

Obama lost ground in Weak this week, most of it (thankfully) upwards to his Strong category. He started the week off losing New Mexico up to Strong, but at the same time also losing Missouri down to Barely and West Virginia to McCain entirely. The best news was on the same day, when Obama moved Virginia back to Weak from Barely. Later in the week, Maine and Minnesota moved up to Strong, and then at the end of the week New Hampshire fell back to Weak from Strong. That's a lot of movement, which resulted in a net loss for Obama here of 18 EV, down to a total of 26 EV.

At the same time, though, Obama gained some ground in Barely. He lost North Dakota down to a tie, but picked up North Carolina from a tie at almost the same time. He also gained Missouri, down from Weak. Overall, his Barely numbers improved by 10 EV to a total of 78 EV.

Looking at Strong plus Weak for Obama reveals that he his steadily holding his ground. While he had a small peak last Wednesday up to 289 EV, this dropped three but then stayed exactly the same throughout all the movement elsewhere for the entire week. Now, it would certainly be nice to see this number get a bit higher by moving some of the Barely states into at least Weak (NV, MO, OH, NC, or FL) to provide Obama a bigger cushion for error on Election Day. But for Strong plus Weak to be as high as 286 EV means Obama doesn't need a single battleground state at this point to win outright, he just needs to hold the states he's got. Which he did admirably well this week.

Sam's Picks

We turn once again to the analysis from Sam Minter and his website abulsme.com. His chart averages the last five state polls, while I just take the most recent data from electoral-vote.com, so his data is more stable than mine.

His chart combines my three charts above into one. Obama starts from the top, McCain starts from the bottom, and wherever the double baby-blue/pink line currently is determines who is ahead, measured from the centerline.

Minter's most recent comments sum up his view of the race:

New Summary:

McCain Best Case -- Obama 277, McCain 261
Obama Best Case -- Obama 383, McCain 155
If everybody gets their leans -- 364 Obama, 174 McCain

So where does that put us?

Well, McCain's best case if he wins every single swing state is still to lose.

Over the last week or so, McCain has been able to move a couple of states (Florida and Colorado) from being blue states back to being swing states. The lead hasn't flipped toward McCain in any of the swing states, but he has made them close again, which is of course the needed first step. He still however needs to pull at least 9 more electoral votes from "Weak Obama" to "Lean Obama" in order to have a possible path to victory.

Meanwhile, there is another line I hadn't paid much attention to lately. That is the "Strong Obama" line. That is, the number of electoral votes Obama has including ONLY the states where his lead is over 10%. Obama does not seem to have peaked yet on this metric. Obama now has 245 electoral votes with just these states. That means he only needs 25 electoral votes from his Weak or Lean states in order to win. There are 119 electoral votes in those categories at the moment that he can pick from to try to get those 25.

The question here is not if McCain can win. The question is if he can even pull enough states back out of Obama's world to even have an imaginable way to win.

Not a good week for McCain fans, I guess.

My Picks

As we've had a relatively stable week, my picks haven't moved a whole lot either. There have been some changes at the margins, but mostly among states with less than 10 electoral votes, meaning that while a few states moved around, the totals really haven't much. Obama's skyrocketing gains appear to have slowed, McCain seems to have largely staunched the bleeding, but there are no signs of any sort of turnaround for him yet at the state-by-state level.

If this keeps up for another week, one wouldn't be surprised to hear that Malia and Sasha Obama have started measuring Amy Carter's treehouse for drapes.

So to speak.

Anyway, here are my personal picks for the week. As always, the categories used are: Likely Obama (broken down to Safe Obama and Probable Obama); Likely McCain (Safe/Probable); and Tossup (broken down to Lean Obama, Lean McCain, and Too Close To Call). And at the very end is a section with all the full data for those who just can't get enough of this stuff.

Likely States -- Obama

Safe Obama (21 states, 260 EV) -- CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IA, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, NJ, NM, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI.

Very little movement here. Maine moves up from Probable, New Hampshire moves down to Probable. Because they both have four electoral votes, the numbers don't move at all. Just counting Safe Obama gives 260 EV, or only ten away from victory in this category alone.

Probable Obama (3 states, 26 EV) -- CO, NH, VA.

Maine moves up to Safe, New Hampshire moves down. But the good news here is that Colorado is looking firmer and firmer for Obama. Because of this stability, Colorado can now be considered a Probable state for Obama.

This improves Obama's overall Likely numbers to 24 states and a whopping 286 EV. Meaning that if Obama only wins these states, and none of the tossups, he will still have 16 electoral votes more than he needs to win the race.

Likely States -- McCain

Safe McCain (16 states, 134 EV) -- AK, AL, AR, AZ, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY.

McCain also picks up one and loses one in his Safe category this week. South Dakota softened up, and moves down to Probable. But Mississippi firmed up for McCain, meaning he has a very small net gain this week of three electoral votes.

Probable McCain (2 states, 18 EV) -- GA, SD.

South Dakota moves down from Safe, Mississippi moves up to Safe, but the real bad news for McCain is he's seemingly got a new (red) battleground state to play defense in, since Montana moves down to Lean McCain (and could even move further, this is a continuing trend for Montana).

Overall, McCain loses one state and three electoral votes from his Likely states, for a total of 18 states and an anemic 152 EV.

Tossup States

Lean Obama (2 states, 47 EV) -- FL, OH.

The good news here for Obama is that Colorado moved up from Lean Obama to Probable Obama this week. The bad news is that his numbers in both Florida and Ohio have flattened out and may even have dipped. If either state gets any closer, it will move down to Too Close To Call next week. But the really good news is it is looking more and more like Obama is not going to need either of them to win the race. These two states may mean the difference between "comfortable win" and "landslide" for Obama, but they likely won't mean "President McCain" even if Obama loses them both.

Lean McCain (3 states, 19 EV) -- IN, MT, WV.

Some mixed news here for McCain as well. The good news for McCain is that West Virginia seems to be moving away from its brief flirtation with Obama. McCain's numbers here have continued to improve, meaning the state moves up from Too Close To Call this week. But the bad news for McCain is that Indiana still hasn't shown strong enough support to move up to Probable McCain, and the really bad news is that Montana has moved down from a Likely state to merely a Lean McCain state.

Too Close To Call (4 states, 34 EV) -- MO, NC, ND, NV.

Surprisingly little movement here, for being so close to the finish line. Missouri, Nevada, and North Carolina are showing a very slight lead to Obama, but not enough to move them into any of his categories. And North Dakota is a complete tossup at this point. West Virginia moved out of this column up to Lean McCain, but otherwise this is the same list as last week.

[Program Note: Only two more of these columns to go! Next Wednesday as usual, and then a special "My Election Picks" column, which will appear on Election Day before the polls close.]

[Electoral Vote Data:]

Previous electoral math columns:

[6/30/08], [7/21/08], [8/6/08], [8/20/08], [9/17/08], [9/24/08], [10/1/08], [10/8/08], and [10/15/08].

Barack Obama Likely Easy Wins -- 24 States -- 286 Electoral Votes:

Safe States -- 21 States -- 260 Electoral Votes
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington, D.C. (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10)

Probable States -- 3 States -- 26 Electoral Votes
Colorado (9), New Hampshire (4), Virginia (13)

John McCain Likely Easy Wins -- 18 States -- 152 Electoral Votes:

Safe States -- 16 States -- 134 Electoral Votes
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)

Probable States -- 2 States -- 18 Electoral Votes
Georgia (15), South Dakota (3)

Tossup States -- 9 States -- 100 Electoral Votes:

Tossup States Leaning Obama -- 2 States -- 47 Electoral Votes
Florida (27), Ohio (20)

Tossup States Leaning McCain -- 3 States -- 19 Electoral Votes
Indiana (11), Montana (3), West Virginia (5)

Too Close To Call -- 4 States -- 34 Electoral Votes
Missouri (11), Nevada (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3)

Oldest data -- no polls in October yet:

9/18: Utah, Washington, D.C.
9/20: Idaho
9/25: Hawaii, Maryland
9/26: Arkansas
9/28: Louisiana

Chris Weigant blogs at: ChrisWeigant.com

McCain Has No Clear Path to 270

The failure to see Colorado as pivotal is a blind spot in the McCain campaign.

Electoral Realities

via Pam's House Blend - Front Page by Victor Maldonado on 10/21/08

CNN's John King reports that the McCain campaign is taking a hard look at how it will employ resources in the waning days of the '08 election. McCain, who is battling Obama in a number of states which supported George Bush in 2004 and has already pulled out of Michigan, is considering a pullout from Colorado. If true, this decision makes the Republicans path to 270 electoral votes very difficult.

Under the new calculus, placing Colorado in the Obama column, McCain must first carry every remaining swing state, including: Nevada, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida. If he accomplishes this, he must still either win Pennsylvania or carry both Virginia and New Mexico. Only by running the board on swings states and flipping Obama leaning Pennsylvania (or New Mexico and Virginia) can McCain win on November 4th.

This is a difficult road to travel. Polls show Obama currently has substantial leads in three of the five swing states (Nevada, Ohio and Florida), is tied with McCain in North Carolina and is trailing by one percentage point in Missouri. Furthermore, polls in Pennsylvania have Obama leading 53% to 41%. In Virginia Obama leads 53% to 43%, and in New Mexico polls indicate Obama up 45% to 40%.

The Obama campaign, by comparison has a much easier path to victory and a number of different options to pursue in its quest for the White House. First, Obama needs to keep all of the states currently in his column. If he can do this, all Obama needs is to do is win one of the five remaining swing states. The Democrat has a much easier and much clearer path to victory.

A McCain victory however is still possible. The maverick from Arizona has certainly been written off in the past, and like Lazarus has returned from the dead. There are also a number of intangible factors which may sway the race, including the Bradley Effect. However, McCain's hopes appear to be dimming with each passing day as the likelihood of an Obama victory appears more likely.

Can We Put this Myth to Rest

Let's stop blaming communities of color for the failure to retain marriage equality.

CA: Black leaders come out against Prop 8

via Pam's House Blend - Front Page by Pam Spaulding on 10/22/08

There has been plenty of talk about whether the black community would vote for Prop 8. Yesterday the Jordan/Rustin Coalition and Equality For All/No held a news conference featuring leaders in the community who spoke eloquently about the discrimination in this ballot initiative.

The participants were:

* Rev. Eric Lee, President, Southern Christian Leadership Council of LA.
* Rev. Arthur Lawrence Cribbs, Jr. United Church of Christ
* Rev. Vanessa Mackenzie, Church of the Advent
* Willie Pelote, Assistant Director of Political Action, AFSCME Int.
* Doug Spearman, Actor from Noah's Arc and on the board of Equality California Institute and the Finance Committee of the No on Prop 8 campaign.

Remarks by the group, passed along by journalist Karen Ocamb, are below the fold.

Left to right: Doug Spearman, Rev. Lee, Rev. Vanessa Mackenzie, Rev. Cribbs, Willie Pelote.

Ron opened with the purpose of the news conference - to let people know that "African Americans will vote No on Prop 8."

Rev. Lee:

"The Southern Christian Leadership Council is the only organization founded by Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. The entire core of SCLC is about fighting for justice for all people and against discrimination... As a result of that - this issue about marriage equality requires that we speak out against this proposition because anytime any group of people are denied the right afforded to another group of people, it is an issue of the violation of civil rights. And we need to be clear about that.

The difficulty is that you have many who are considered to be clergy, considered to be Christian, that are not understanding the rights of people for free choice. And to have the same benefit that any other people are afforded. The disappointment is that there is an attempt for people to impose a narrow theological view on relationships upon every body in every situation. And no one has the right to do that.

So because of that, I, along with the Southern Christian Leadership Conference - I also spoke with Rev. Lawson who is one of the foremost theorists and teachers of non-violent opposition to injustice - who adamantly said this is the right thing for us to do. So we stand on your side, we will stand with you until justice is rendered until you are ensured that your rights will never be denied by any group of people for any discriminatory reason. So God bless you and I'm with you."

Rev. Cribbs:

"..... If I simply based my decision on television commercials, I would be for Proposition 8. But those commercials lie. The information that's being presented on television, even from a law professor at Pepperdine University, are all based on lies, not facts.

First of all, this is not about children and protecting children. The language in Proposition 8 that is put on the ballot has to do with marriage between a man and a woman. I'm opposed to Proposition 8 because to put discriminatory language in the California constitution....(garbled on my tape, sorry)...Although we have discriminated against persons because they're Chinese, Japanese, Latinos, we have not put discriminatory language in the state constitution. And in the 21st century, it is not a move forward to begin putting discriminatory language in the state constitution. So I oppose Proposition 8 on that.

I personally oppose Proposition 8 because I know what it feels like to have someone else tell me who I should be married to. I know the pain of that. I know the suffering that comes with that. I do not believe it is right for a third party detached and not involved dictating who should love whom and how that relationship should be formed. I oppose Proposition 8 on its face.

And then, finally - theologically. My faith tells me to treat people the way I want to be treated. To do no harm to anyone. I have heard people say, 'I am hurt by the language of discrimination that is being proposed for the California state constitution.' If don't want to feel the pain, then I am obligated not to impose pain on someone else. And so I oppose Proposition 8.

The United Church of Christ opposes Proposition 8 ....there is no reason for any one to support Proposition 8 if they have a concern for others and if they do not want someone to dictate their relationship - that it is inappropriate to legislative the dictation on someone else."

Rev. Mackenzie (who's from South Africa):

"I moved to this country eight years ago and I am horrified that now they want to put into the constitution that it is right to discriminate....We are all human, created in the image of God and all of us, in our own unique ways, reflect that image. And if we say yes to Proposition 8, we are distorting and destroying the image of God in our gay brothers and sisters."

Willie Pelote:

"....Let's be clear. What Prop 8 is designed to do is to take away the rights that gays and lesbian have worked for over the years and should be guaranteed under the constitution, not denied...

[It's important to] get word out on how people should vote on Prop 8 - it s no on Prop 8 . it's discriminatory. Its un-American, it's unpatriotic. It's against the will of the people in the great state of California. And let's think of the Mormon Church - and if God was given the right to protect everyone of his children and if you're against that, you're against god and we're against you....

Prop 8 is bad for California...Prop 8 is about outsourcing people's rights and discriminating against them in everyday life. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees - the largest public union in this country - and 175,000 strong in the state of California - will stand with you until justice prevails. We will never, ever give up and allow someone to put in the constitution discriminatory langue against anyone in our society."

Doug Spearman:

"....We can now get married in the state of California. But we have to be vigilant and protect that right. And be constantly awake and aware and fight for something the state constitution is built to protect. They want to dismantle that in order to take away something from us.

When the Supreme Court authored its opinion, it effectively wiped away not just discrimination against gays and lesbians. They wiped away discrimination in the state of California in a way that it had ever been addressed before. They did a brave and beautiful thing, making our lives safe making our lives accountable, our lives worthy, making our lives important in this state. We held up a light in California that shines on the entire nation. We held up a light that is a beacon for truth and honor and dignity and respect so that every other state has a responsibility to turn towards or turn away from.... This isn't just the right to marry....this is a civil right. It is the beginning. So if they're going to take away this right, what right other rights are they going to take away?,,,, "

Asked about the concern that African Americans who show up to vote for Barack Obama, especially young people who haven't voted before, will vote Yes on Prop 8 - the participants all said that the youth must be told that "Barack Obama would vote No on Proposition 8 - so you should, too."

***

Sign of the Times

Mort Gerberg: Out of Line: Beware of Ad

via The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com by Mort Gerberg on 10/22/08

Yes We Carve! Obama Pumpkins

I LOVE THIS VIDEO. Have you seen any of these?

The WSJ Would Change These Numbers If It Could: Obama Up by 10

Some good polling news today even though we keep hearing that the race is tightening.



NBC just released the results of its latest poll. Obama is opening up a big lead. More importantly, Palin is the biggest concern voters have about McCain:





Palin's negatives have soared, but more importantly, she has now become John McCain's greatest liability - greater than voters' concern that McCain will be another Bush term. Normally, voters don't care about the VP choice. In this instance they do. I think this means that the number one voter concern is John McCain's health. Earlier today, I was watching some footage of McCain in the Republican debates in May. He was good. He looked years younger - YEARS younger. He was smart, quick, funny - he was a younger man. McCain has aged a lot in the past six months, and that's troublesome. It shows when he talks, it shows in how he thinks and how acts/reacts to crises like the recent Wall Street meltdown. That is what, in my view, is underlying these polls. People think, people see with their own eyes, that there is a real chance that John McCain won't make it through his presidency, and that Sarah Palin will be forced to take over. And real Americans know that Sarah Palin is not, and never will be, ready to be president of the United States of America.

From MSNBC:

That doesn't appear to be the case with McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin. Fifty-five percent of respondents say she's not qualified to serve as president if the need arises, up five points from the previous poll.

In addition, for the first time, more voters have a negative opinion of her than a positive one. In the survey, 47 percent view her negatively, versus 38 percent who see her in a positive light.

That's a striking shift since McCain chose Palin as his running mate in early September, when she held a 47 to 27 percent positive rating.

Now, Palin's qualifications to be president rank as voters' top concern about McCain's candidacy - ahead of continuing President Bush's policies, enacting economic policies that only benefit the rich and keeping too high of a troop presence in Iraq

Should small donors focus on small organizations?

This post discusses an interesting question: how can a donor giving $500 get the most impact from his/her gift? But I think the answer given misses the point. First, it centers around service-provider organizations and not advocacy organizations, so this idea of the organization using the gift to expand to serve more people doesn't apply to all groups. Second, a gift of $500 for a small organization can have a great impact and can begin a major donor relationship that will be critically important to that organization over time.

Should small donors focus on small organizations?

via The GiveWell Blog by Holden on 10/20/08

We received the following email from reader David Micley:

I want to donate $500 to an effective charity. Ive been doing research on your site and it seems like PSI is a great choice in terms of helping global health. I have not yet made my decision as to which charity I will donate to, but as I continue to research, I continue to ask myself a fundamental question. How much of my money actually makes a difference in the effectiveness of a large charity? The amount of money that a huge charity has such as PSI makes me feel as if my $500 will be but a penny in a wishing well. Will my money be more effective donating to smaller charities that are in more need of money? Or is the large charity truly the place to find the most effective charitable work, and even if I feel my impact isn't so strong relative to the size of the charity, it will be the most efficient way to help other people in need?

Our FAQ recommends that small donors with little information give to larger charities, but doesn't address this angle - the question of whether $500 has more impact when it's a larger percentage of the budget.

My view is that the size of a charity is less relevant here than whether it is operating at full capacity.

If a charity is already at an "equilibrium" where its costs are about equal to revenues, and it's serving everyone its core activities can serve, then it will get questionable value for an extra $500. This is true whether the charity is large or small. It may attempt to expand its activities, start new programs, and serve more people, but a $500 donation seems unlikely to be the key driver behind such an expansion.

If a charity has more clients than it can currently afford to serve, or more worthwhile projects on the table than it can currently fund, a $500 donation can help it serve more people (or serve them better) - regardless of how big the charity is as a whole. To use a for-profit analogy, when you give McDonald's 99c, your contribution is an extremely tiny percentage of its overall revenue, but it still produces an extra burger. McDonald's, Inc. had no role in endorsing or funding this analogy.

Figuring out the extent to which a charity is "at capacity," and what the impact of additional funds will be, is something that we struggle with, and we have no easy or fully reliable way of doing it. However, it's worth noting that a large charity may be better positioned to handle increases in revenue, and use them to expand projects that are already repeatable/scalable, than a small one. And we feel relatively confident that the large charities we recommend are very far from serving everyone they could serve.

For this reason, the "will I make a difference?" question seems to tilt slightly in favor of giving to large charities when making small donations. $500 might be a small percentage of PSI's revenues, but if you put credence in our estimate that PSI prevents a death for every ~$1000, that donation can be a huge deal in human terms.